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前瞻下周四将公布的欧央行利率决议

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汇丰前瞻下周四将公布的欧洲央行利率决议时称,欧元相比3月会议时升值约2%且油价下滑7%,因此预计欧央行下周将下调通胀预期;此外,央行料会维持GDP增速预期不变,经济增长预计将面临下行风险。

前瞻指引料不会有大的变动,但部分委员或会希望对前瞻指引进行修改,因为周期性数据走强,而央行与市场的沟通不能偏离数据;预计欧洲央行或只会表示其讨论了退出策略,并强调时机成熟时将依据数据逐步退出QE;另外欧洲央行预计将继续讨论-0.4%的存款利率是否会对货币政策有效性造成负面影响。

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