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金椽栐:8.30"哈维“使市场断链,库存增加使原油跌势强劲

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    原油方面随着“哈维”飓风带来的影响越来越大,昨日受朝鲜影响使原油上扬至47美元,但由于地缘动荡减弱,加之昨日15点美元指数跌破92关口,续刷2016年5月3日以来新低之后,美元强势反弹,原油承压,加之处于空头格局,造成原油一波大跌至45.76,但由于今天凌晨有API,空方在大幅获利之后了解,促使原油短线上扬,到API数据公布,原油最高至46.9,有消息指出:因为本次数据是在哈维到来之前统计的;但可以看出此次原油库存录得大幅下滑,汽油库存意外录得小幅上涨。


  近期OPEC除了利比亚三个油田关闭带来的利多之外,其他的均是口头上的利多支持,市场在“哈维”给原油造成的断链,远不是几句口头利多能支撑的。目前全美13-16%的炼油产能已下线。对于炼厂需要多少时间才能恢复正常运营还不得而知。2005年的飓风卡特里娜令美国30%炼油产能受影响,当时炼厂花了1至2个月才重启炼油活动。


  建议


  46.2附近做空,止损46.6,目标45.3;

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