【5月12日原油(7月合约)分析】
1、基本面:昨天沙特宣布将在履行OPEC+减产协议的基础上扩大减产规模,将6月的产量减至750万桶/日。如果沙特能够兑现承诺,这将成为该国自2002年以来的最低产量。紧随沙特之后,科威特、阿联酋宣布扩大减产规模,额外每日减产8万桶和10万桶。受此影响,原油拉升上涨至26.73美元,但由于市场怀疑沙特是否有能力兑现额外减产承诺,原油随后受压回落最低至24.79。
2、技术面: 4小时K线看,布林带三轨逐渐缩口走平,原油价格运行在布林带中轨附近运行,均线收金叉迹象上扬,MACD快慢线位于零轴上方呈死叉缓和向右走平,指标表现中性,KD开口向下,但有向上拐头迹像,预计行情还会维持在4小时布林通道区间内震荡拉锯一至两个交易日才能形成突破。不过要留意日图整理时间较长,后面会选择方向突破。
3、操作建议:今日操作以回调做多为主,反弹高空为辅。下方关注下轨24.80附近支撑,上方关注上轨26.8压力。短线可以在下轨24.80-26.80上轨之间低多高沽。
①下方在24.80附近做多,止损50个点,止盈目标25.60、26.50 .
②上方涨至布林上轨阻力位26.80附近做空,止损50个点,止盈目标25.50、24.95
阻力位置: 25.75 26.80 27.98 30.97
支撑位置: 24.83 24.15 23.40 21.22
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