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亚洲新兴市场风暴将至?外汇储备正急剧枯竭,为2009年来最低水平

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亚洲新兴G家央行的外汇储备急剧减少,这引发了人们的担忧,因为在美元强势之际,这可能会打压市场遏制本币贬值的干预措施。

据渣打银行的数据显示,外汇储备指标——即一个G家可以用其外汇储备为进口提供资金的月数,在除CHINA以外的亚洲新兴市场已降至约7个月,为2008年全球金融危机以来的最低水平。

该指标在今年年初约为10个月,2020年8月时曾高达16个月,这表明亚洲新兴G家捍卫本国货币的“弹药”储备正在逐渐枯竭。根据渣打银行的数据,目前外汇储备约可满足India九个月的进口需求,Indonesia为六个月,The Philippines约为八个月,Korea为七个月

据媒体,渣打银行驻Singapore的东盟和南亚外汇研究主管Divya Devesh上周表示:

       “形势恶化表明,未来各G央行为支持本币而进行的干预可能会更加有限。总体而言,我们预计各G央行的外汇政策变得不再那么有具体支持性。”


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