Focus on AUDUSD today – 5th January 2024
In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the AUDUSD for 5th January 2024.
Key Takeaways
- Policy differences: Hedge funds went long on the Australian dollar for the first time, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a hawkish bias, while the Federal Reserve signaled it would cut interest rates next year. The Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates twice in 2024, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates seven times.
- Carry trade : The market has recently reflected expectations of interest rate cuts, and the U.S. dollar exchange rate is expected to rise or fall within a narrow range in the next three months, and will depreciate moderately in the next six to 12 months. Since the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen are the main lending currencies for carry trades, they may become the main beneficiaries of the weakening of the US dollar in the future.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Insights
- Stochastic Oscillator: After the indicator issued a short signal, the fast and slow lines fell below the 50 midline one after another. This suggests that bears have the upper hand and the rapidly declining price may soon undergo a short-term adjustment.
- Price Action: The exchange rate continued to fall after stepping back above the red 7-day moving average yesterday, eventually forming a doji bar, but yesterday’s closing price did not fall below the previous low which is called as the harami pattern . If the exchange rate falls below yesterday’s low today, there is a high probability that the decline will accelerate.
1-hour Chart Analysis
- Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator sent a long signal in the oversold area yesterday, and the exchange rate and indicator subsequently moved upward. Since the daily chart is still a short trend, you can pay attention to selling opportunities after waiting for the indicator to send out a short signal again.
- Flag-shaped pattern: AUDUSD is currently oscillating in a flag-shaped pattern during the Asian session, with the black 33-period moving average and trend line suppressing it above. It is always waiting for short-selling opportunities before breaking through the upper structure.
Pivot Indicator
- According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 0.6725,
- Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 0.6725, first target 0.6740, second target 0.6760;
- Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 0.6725, first target 0.6690, second target 0.6675.
Conclusion
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