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Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso drops amid a light economic docket

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  • Mexico’s economic docket will be absent during the current week. The next economic data released would be Retail Sales expected on May 20, followed by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and inflation figures on May 23.
  • Banxico will reveal its latest meeting minutes on May 23.
  • April's data show that Mexico’s headline inflation is reaccelerating. However, core prices are falling. This spurred Banxico’s revision to its inflation projections, with the bank expected to hit its 3% target toward the last quarter of 2025, later than March’s estimates for Q2 2025. Core inflation is projected to hit 3% in Q2 2025.
  • In the short term, the US economic docket will feature the Producer Price Index (PPI) on May 14, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales on May 15.
  • USD/MXN traders are eyeing Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s on May 14.
  • The deterioration in consumer sentiment, alongside a cooling labor market, has opened the door for investors to price in rate cuts by the Fed. This is because US central bank policymakers acknowledged that risks to achieving its dual mandate on employment and inflation “moved toward better balance over the past year.”
  • Data from the futures market show odds for a quarter-percentage-point Fed rate cut in September at 79% versus 78% last Friday.


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