• EUR/USD trades sideways around 1.0850 on a thinly traded day.
• The Euro strengthens as investors remain uncertain over ECB reducing rates in July too.
• Investors expect that the Fed will start lowering borrowing rates in the last quarter of this year.

EUR/USD is stuck in a tight range around 1.0850 in Monday’s European session, in a calm start to the week ahead of the release of inflation data on both sides of the Atlantic on Friday. The major currency pair exhibits strength as European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers avoid to commit about extending the rate-cut cycle beyond the June meeting. 

ECB policymakers do not want to promise more rate cuts as they seem to be concerned that aggressive policy easing could revamp price pressures again. 

In this context, traders have dialled back expectations of three rate cuts this year and are seeing only two due to recent economic indicators signalling persisting price pressures, such as the Negotiated Wage Rates for the first quarter and the preliminary HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for May.

Higher wage growth deepens households’ pockets, which leads to a significant rise in consumer spending that fuels inflationary pressures. However, ECB board member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel downplayed the effect of higher wage growth, stating that it is a lagging indicator and the long-term trend is expected to remain soft.

On the economic front, German IFO data on Business Climate, Current Assessment and Expectations for May has been released. The overall data missed estimates, however, the Euro remains unchanged. 

German IFO Business Climate Index dipped slightly to 89.3 from 89.4 in April. Investors forecasted a sharp rise to 90.3.

The Current Economic Assessment Index declined to 88.3 from 88.9 in April, missing the consensus of 89.9.

The IFO Expectations Index, which indicates firms’ projections for the next six months at 90.4, fell short of the market consensus of 90.5 but remains higher than the former reading of 89.7.