Current trend

During the Asian session, prices for WTI Crude Oil decreased slightly, remaining close to the highs from the beginning of the month, and consolidated at 80.00 in anticipation of the emergence of new drivers for movement.

At 14:30 (GMT 2) on Friday, a key indicator for the US Fed is due – the price index of personal consumption expenditures: in April, analysts do not expect changes from the previous values ​​of 0.3% and 2.8% in monthly and annual terms, respectively. According to forecasts, the index of personal income of American households could decrease from 0.5% to 0.3% in the same period and expenses – from 0.8% to 0.3%. Today at 20:00 (GMT 2), experts will pay attention to the monthly economic review from the US Fed Beige Book and to the report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on the dynamics of commercial inventories for the week of May 24. Previously, inventories increased by 2. 48M barrels after a sharp decline of 3.104M barrels. Final data from the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) will appear on Thursday and may reflect a decrease of 2.0M barrels after a rise of 1.825M barrels earlier.

According to Bloomberg, several major exporting countries, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kazakhstan, Iraq, Kuwait, and Algeria, would like to increase oil production levels in 2025, but analysts are confident that current oil production reduction plans will be extended at the meeting of the OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee on June 2. By the end of next month, all cartel members will be audited by three independent production data agencies (IHS Energy, Wood Mackenzie, and Rystad Energy) to confirm the production capacity needed to set quotas for 2025.

Meanwhile, the correction continues in the market. According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week, net speculative positions in WTI Crude Oil increased to 219.3K from 203.0K previously. As for the dynamics, the increase in positions again occurred in categories not backed by real money, and this will have virtually no effect on the trend. Thus, the balance of the “bulls” among the producers amounted to 289.204K against 298.838K for the “bears”. Last week, buyers reduced the number of contracts by 26.132K, while sellers – by 15.169K.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands try to reverse into an upward plane: the price range expands but not as fast as the “bullish” sentiment develops. The MACD indicator grows, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is quickly approaching its highs, indicating that the asset may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 80.00, 81.00, 82.00, 83.00.

Support levels: 79.07, 78.00, 77.00, 76.00.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a confident level of 80.00, with the target at 81.00. Stop loss – 79.50. Implementation time: 1–2 days.

Short positions may be opened after a rebound from 80.00 and a breakdown of 79.07, with the target at 78.00. Stop loss – 79.50.