EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows a moderate decline, leveling the results of the "bullish" dynamics that were recorded the day before. The instrument is testing 1.0820 for a breakdown, while investors await today's publication of key macroeconomic statistics on inflation in the eurozone and the United States. It is assumed that the Consumer Price Index in the eurozone will be adjusted from 2.4% to 2.5% in May, and the Core CPI excluding volatile energy and food prices will be adjusted from 2.7% to 2.8%. If real inflation turns out to be higher than market forecasts, the European Central Bank (ECB) may refuse to adjust monetary parameters in June, taking a wait-and-see approach. With the opening of the American trading session, the market's focus will shift to the Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index, which is the most preferred indicator of inflation for the US Federal Reserve. At the same time, forecasts do not imply any changes in the indicator from 0.3% in monthly terms and 2.7% in annual terms, and the Core index may also add the previous 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY. Investors also evaluate April data from Germany on Retail Sales, the volume of which decreased by 0.6% YoY after an increase of 0.3% in the previous month, and in monthly terms the figure adjusted by –1.2% after 1.8% in March, while analysts expected –0.1%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is developing mixed trading dynamics, preparing to end the weekly session with a slight decline. The instrument is testing 1.2720 for a breakdown, and traders are awaiting today's publication of April statistics on the Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index at 14:30 (GMT 2), which is considered the most preferred indicator for the US Federal Reserve when assessing average inflation in the country. Analysts do not expect any changes in the index from March values (0.3% in monthly terms and 2.7% in annual terms), while the Core indicator is likely to be fixed at 0.3% and 2.8%, respectively. At the moment, experts are counting on only one interest rate reduction by the US Federal Reserve before the end of this year, which could take place in November or December. In the UK, April statistics on consumer credit will be published at 10:30 (GMT 2): analysts expect that Consumer Credit will decrease from 1.577 billion pounds to 1.500 billion pounds, while Net Lending to Individuals may increase from 1.8 billion pounds to 2.0 billion pounds, and Mortgage Approvals — from 61.325 thousand to 61.500 thousand.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is showing weak growth, correcting after declining for three trading sessions in a row, which resulted in updating local lows on May 24. The instrument is testing 0.6125 for a breakout, and trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the publication of key macroeconomic statistics on inflation in the United States. At 14:30 (GMT 2), the market will receive data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index, which is one of the preferred indicators for the US Federal Reserve. Analysts do not expect any changes from previous values ​​of 0.3% in monthly terms and 2.7% in annual terms, while the Core index could add 0.3% and 2.8%, respectively. Investors are evaluating data on business activity from China, published today: the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI in May adjusted from 51.2 points to 51.1 points, while experts expected 51.5 points, and the Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.4 points to 49.5 points, contrary to forecasts of 50.5 points. Pressure on the instrument is also exerted by data on business optimism from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which reflected a reduction in the indicator in May from 14.9 points to 11.2 points. The business activity forecast from the National Bank of New Zealand dropped from 14.3% to 11.8%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing mixed trading, holding near 156.70. Market activity remains subdued as investors await the publication of April inflation statistics with the opening of the American trading session. The focus of investors' attention is on the Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index, which is the most preferred indicator of inflation for the US Federal Reserve. At the same time, forecasts do not imply any changes in the indicator from 0.3% in monthly terms and 2.7% in annual terms, and the Core index may also add the previous 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY. Any changes in the indicator could significantly affect the expectations of a reduction in the cost of borrowing by the American regulator in the second half of 2024. Investors have now revised previous forecasts and are counting on only one adjustment to the value of 25 basis points in November or December. Meanwhile, macroeconomic statistics from Japan published today does not provide significant support to the yen. At the same time, Tokyo Consumer Price Index increased from 1.8% to 2.2% in May, and the CPI excluding Fresh Food increased from 1.6% to 1.9%. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 2.6% in April, while annual Retail Sales rose from 1.1% to 2.4%, ahead of expectations at 1.9%, and the monthly figure added 1.2% after –1.2% a month earlier.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair shows multidirectional dynamics, holding near 2345.00. The instrument is preparing to end the weekly session with a slight increase, but investors are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the publication of key macroeconomic statistics on inflation in the eurozone and the United States. European data is expected to see Core Consumer Price Index rise slightly in May from 2.7% to 2.8%, while the CPI could correct from 2.4% to 2.5%. Forecasts for the Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index in the United States do not assume any changes from previous values of 0.3% in monthly terms and 2.7% in annual terms, and the Core indicator could rise by 0.3% and 2.8%, respectively. Also, during the day, data on the dynamics of Personal Income and Spending of American households will be presented in the United States: it is expected that in April, Income will slow down from 0.5% to 0.3%, and Spending may decrease to 0.3% from 0.8%. Pressure on gold positions is also exerted by the fact that US bond yields are increasing, currently reaching new two-week highs.