United States of America

USD is strengthening against EUR, GBP and JPY.

In May, the unemployment rate rose by 4.0% instead of remaining at 3.9%, but employment increased by 272.0K against the forecast of 182.0K. The indicators increased the most in the healthcare, leisure, and government sectors. The central indicator of the change in average hourly earnings for the US Fed changed by 0.4% MoM against the expected 0.3% and by 4.1% YoY instead of 3.9%, which confirms the persistence of risks of new inflation growth and reduces the likelihood of the beginning of an early easing of monetary policy. Nevertheless, most market participants hope for two interest rate cuts this year, in September and December.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening against USD and GBP but strengthening against JPY.

In April, German goods exports increased by 1.6%, exceeding the forecast of 1.1%, with deliveries to China (0.8%) and The United Kingdom (15.4%) leading the way. The volume of imports of products into the country increased by 2.0% instead of the expected 0.6%, which led to a decrease in the trade balance from 22.2B euros to 22.1B euros. Data on gross domestic product (GDP) met experts’ expectations. The Q1 indicator changed by 0.3% QoQ and by 0.4% YoY. Today, representatives of the German Federal Bank said that inflation in Germany was more stable than expected due to continued strong wage growth, and this year, the consumer price index will be 2.8%, although 2.7% was expected. Experts believe that against this background, officials of the European Central Bank (ECB) may take a long pause before the next reduction in interest rates.

The United Kingdom

GBP is weakening against USD but strengthening against EUR and JPY.

In May, the Halifax House Price Index fell by 0.1% MoM instead of the expected 0.3% but increased by 1.5% against the forecast of 1.2% — YoY. Experts note that the market has stabilized after the spring growth associated with higher wages and an improved economic outlook in the country. Most investors associate further recovery of the housing sector with the start of the Bank of England’s interest rate cuts, which may occur in the fall.

Japan

JPY is weakening against EUR, GBP, and USD.

In April, the Japanese household spending index fell by 1.2% instead of the expected growth of 0.2% MoM and grew by 0.5% — YoY, less than the forecast of 0.6%. Despite the positive dynamics of the indicator for the first time in 14 months, experts note that consumption in the national economy remains weak, which may become an obstacle to the growth of inflation and further adjustment of interest rates by the Bank of Japan. Today, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that currency interventions should be carried out sparingly, given their necessity and effectiveness.

Australia

AUD is weakening against EUR, JPY, GBP and USD.

Due to a lack of significant economic releases, the currency’s movement is due to the influence of external factors. Meanwhile, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Andrew Houser confirmed that the fight against high prices is not over and will be carried out until they are defeated. He also noted that regulator officials are not sure in which direction interest rates will move in the future, although most would prefer to reduce the cost of borrowing. These statements were interpreted by experts as a hint at the possibility of further tightening of monetary policy if inflation continues to remain above the regulator’s target range of 2.0–3.0%.

Oil

Oil prices are moving in narrow sideway ranges.

The market remains under pressure from several opposing factors. On the one hand, prices are supported by Chinese trade data published today: in May, the volume of exports of goods increased by 7.6% instead of the expected 6.0%, and imports by 1.8%, slightly less than the forecast of 4.2%, confirming the recovery of the national economy, which may entail an increase in demand for fuel. On the other hand, positive dynamics are hampered by strong May statistics from the American labor market, against which US Fed officials may keep interest rates at peak levels longer.