Current trend
During the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair is growing, leveling out the results of the “bearish” trend that began last Monday and is testing 32.5500 for a breakout.
Traders are assessing US inflation data and the results of the two-day meeting of the US Fed. As expected, the regulator’s officials kept the interest rate at 5.5% and, for the first time in three months, published a renewed dot plot, according to which the interest rate will reach 5.1% by the end of 2024, although a decrease to 4.6% was previously expected. In May, core inflation, excluding food products and energy, slowed from 3.6% to 3.4%, below market expectations of 3.5%. However, the agency’s economists warn that, under certain conditions, the risks of rising consumer prices will remain. In addition, investors paid attention to similar statistics from China. The May consumer price index fell by 0.1% MoM after growing by 0.1% earlier and increased by the previous 0.3% YoY, contrary to the expected acceleration of 0.4%.
The lira remains under pressure from the uncertain outlook for the Turkish economy, where inflation in May amounted to 75.45% YoY, the highest since November 2022. Financial authorities assume that after reaching peak values, the indicator will decline sharply in June, supported by the strengthening of the service sector and the start of the tourist season. The World Bank has published renewed estimates of the dynamics of Turkey’s gross domestic product (GDP). According to experts’ calculations, the value will be 3.0% in 2024, the forecast has changed from 3.9% in January to 3.6% in 2025, and will reach 4.3% in 2026. The Global Economic Outlook report notes that business activity has remained resilient this year, thanks to a five-fold increase in the low wage from 2022 and despite monetary tightening, which analysts believe will still help ease pressure on the economy soon.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are growing moderately: the price range is narrowing from below, limiting the development of the “bullish” dynamics in the ultra-short term. MACD formed a buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line) and is growing. Stochastic is approximately in the center of the working area, reflecting the likelihood of developing an ultra-short-term “bullish” trend.
Resistance levels: 32.6000, 32.7500, 32.9000, 33.0500.
Support levels: 32.4500, 32.3000, 32.1500, 32.0000.
Trading tips
Long positions may be opened after a breakout of 32.6000, with the target at 32.9000. Stop loss — 32.4500. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions may be opened after a rebound from 32.6000 and a breakdown of 32.4500, with the target at 32.1500. Stop loss — 32.6000.
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