EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows a moderate decline, returning to "bearish" dynamics after attempting to rise the day before. The instrument is testing 1.0725 for a breakdown, while investors await the publication of statistics on consumer inflation in the eurozone, as well as on Retail Sales and Industrial Production in the United States. Eurozone Consumer Price Index growth in May is projected at 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% annual growth, while the Core CPI is likely to rise 0.4% and 2.9%, respectively. The day before, data on inflation in France was presented: the CPI increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis and 0.8% on an annual basis, which strengthened market expectations regarding statistics for the eurozone. Also, today at 11:00 (GMT 2) the market will receive data on sentiment in the German business environment from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW): the June indicator, according to preliminary estimates, will rise from 47.1 points to 50.0 points, and the Current Situation index — from –72.3 points to –65.0 points. Forecasts for US Retail Sales call for weak growth of 0.2%, following flat growth last month, while the indicator excluding auto sales is expected at 0.2%. In turn, Industrial Production volumes in May may accelerate from 0.0% to 0.3%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with negative dynamics, leveling the results of the corrective growth that was shown in trading at the beginning of the week. The pound is again testing 1.2700 for a breakdown, while investors await tomorrow's publication of May inflation statistics in the UK. Analysts expect the annual Core Consumer Price Index to slow down from 3.9% to 3.5%, while the CPI could accelerate from 0.3% to 0.4% and the Retail Price Index could fall from 3.3% to 3.1% in annual terms and add 0.5% in monthly terms. May inflation statistics may influence the decision of Bank of England officials at a meeting on Thursday, June 20. Now experts assume that the regulator will keep the interest rate at 5.25%, especially if price dynamics show a weaker slowdown than expected. However, pressure on the regulator continues to mount as the European Central Bank (ECB) implemented its first cut in borrowing costs by 25 basis points earlier in June. In addition, the British economy continues to slow down, facing additional challenges. On Friday, May UK Retail Sales data will hit the market, which could help assess the dynamics of domestic consumption: it is expected that in annual terms sales will decrease by 0.9% after –2.7%, and in monthly terms they will increase by 1.5% after –2.3% in April. In turn, statistics on Retail Sales and Industrial Production will be presented in the United States today: sales volumes in monthly terms may increase by 0.2% after zero dynamics in April. Also, during the day, there will be speeches by representatives of the US Federal Reserve, who can comment on the prospects for lowering the interest rate until the end of 2024.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, retreating from the local lows of June 10, updated the day before. The instrument is testing 0.6620 for a breakout, while trading participants evaluate the results of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting. As expected, the regulator kept the key interest rate at 4.35%, noting in the follow-up statement that inflation remains above target levels and is also showing signs of stability. The rate at which price pressures are easing is lower than predicted, so it is now prudent to take a wait-and-see approach and assess the risks. Now investors doubt the possibility of adjusting borrowing costs before the end of 2024, but much will depend on incoming macroeconomic statistics from Australia. The most likely scenario at the moment involves a reduction in the rate only in the first quarter of 2025. Today at 14:30 (GMT 2), data on Retail Sales will be presented in the US: forecasts suggest an acceleration of the indicator on a monthly basis by 0.2% after zero dynamics in April, while Sales excluding Autos may also add 0.2%. Throughout the day, representatives of the US Federal Reserve will make comments on the outlook for monetary policy, including Thomas Barkin, Adriana Kugler, Lorie Logan and Alberto Musalem. Previously, the American regulator kept the interest rate at 5.50%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows mixed dynamics, holding near 157.90. The American currency remains stable; however, the current "bullish" impetus is not enough to renew record highs, from which the yen retreated in late April and early May, when the Bank of Japan decided on currency interventions. The prospect of further tightening of monetary policy by the regulator is still unclear, as inflation in the country remains unstable. On Friday, June 14, the regular meeting of the Bank of Japan ended, at which it was decided to keep the interest rate at 0.00%, and officials announced their readiness to begin reducing the government bond repurchase program in the amount of about 38.0 billion dollars, starting in July. In addition, the Bank will abandon yield targeting on 10-year bonds. Meanwhile, macroeconomic data from Japan released last Friday showed Industrial Production fell 0.9% in April from –0.1% in the previous month, while the annual rate of decline accelerated from –1.0% to –1.8%. Tomorrow, May statistics on foreign trade will be presented: according to forecasts, Exports will increase from 8.3% to 13.0%, and Imports — from 8.3% to 10.4%. Against this background, the trade deficit is expected to increase from –462.5 billion yen to –1.3 trillion yen. Today at 14:30 (GMT 2) the US market will receive data on Retail Sales: it is expected that in May the indicator will add 0.2% after zero dynamics in the previous month, and the indicator excluding cars will increase by 0.2%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair shows multidirectional dynamics, holding near 2320.00. Activity on the market remains low, as trading participants expect the emergence of new drivers of movement. In particular, in the US today data on Retail Sales will be published, which may complement the overall picture of consumer activity: forecasts suggest an acceleration of the indicator in monthly terms by 0.2% after zero dynamics in April, and sales excluding cars may add another 0.2%. Throughout the day, representatives of the US Federal Reserve will make comments on the outlook for monetary policy, including Thomas Barkin, Adriana Kugler, Lorie Logan and Alberto Musalem. Previously, the American regulator kept the interest rate at 5.50%. At the same time, for the first time in three months, updated forecasts were published regarding the further dynamics of the indicator: according to updated data, at the end of 2024 the regulator expects a reduction in the cost of borrowing to 5.10%, which significantly exceeds the March estimates of 4.60%. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the US Federal Reserve may begin the transition to easing monetary conditions in September.