United States of America

USD is strengthening against JPY but is weakening against GBP and EUR.

The May retail sales rose by 0.1% MoM, below the 0.3% expected by analysts, and by 2.27% YoY, compared to the 2.74% forecast. The core indicator, which excludes cars, was corrected by –0.1%, while experts expected 0.2%. Although the situation in the labor market is stabilizing, negative dynamics in the trade sector could negatively affect the Q2 gross domestic product (GDP).

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against USD and JPY but has negative dynamics against GBP.

At today’s meeting, European Central Bank (ECB) officials discussed the dynamics of the Eurozone’s gross domestic product (GDP) compared with the US, as well as the fiscal policy of the Eurozone. Thus, economists assume that soon, the difference in the growth rates of the regions’ economies will decrease, and by the end of the year the real indicator will improve against the consumption recovery. In addition, labor productivity may increase, as indicated by the labor force growth.

The United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against EUR, JPY, and USD

The May consumer price index accelerated by 0.3% MoM which led to a slowdown in the indicator from 2.3% to 2.0% YoY. The core value, excluding food and fuel, fell from 3.9% to 3.5%. If the negative dynamics continue, by the end of the year, the Bank of England officials will have a point for switching to “dovish” rhetoric. The regulator’s next meeting on monetary policy is due tomorrow at 13:00 (GMT 2), and analysts assume that seven of nine council members will vote to keep the interest rate at 5.25%.

Japan

JPY is falling against EUR, GBP, and USD.

Macroeconomic statistics failed to support the yen. Exports increased from 8.3% to 13.5%, and imports from 8.3% to 9.5%, which led to a seasonally adjusted trade balance adjustment to –1.221T yen, and the seasonally adjusted value from –0.58T yen to –0.62T yen. The national economy remains under pressure, and investors are now awaiting further steps by monetary authorities. Some are confident that during the July meeting, officials will take a wait-and-see attitude to assess the measures already taken to adjust the interest rate, keeping the figure within 0.00–0.10%.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against USD, EUR, GBP, and JPY. Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rate on hold at 4.35%, saying the outlook was largely uncertain and that the return of inflation to the sub–2.0% target was unlikely to be smooth or rapid. The initial forecast was for the consumer price index to reach 2.0% by mid–2025 but economic activity remains poor and wage growth is weak. The agency said even lower fuel prices would not put much pressure on the index, and that it was necessary to brace for a long period of high prices and peak borrowing costs.

Oil

Oil prices are strengthening.

This week, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its report on Wednesday, as the country is on holiday to celebrate Emancipation Day. According to preliminary estimates, commercial oil stocks will fall by 2.800M barrels after rising by 3.700M barrels, supporting oil prices. Earlier, statistics from the American Petroleum Institute (API) reflected an increase in the volumes by 2.264M barrels. Against reports of Saudi Arabia’s refusal to enter into a deal with the United States to sell oil for dollars, it did not affect the asset.