EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows flat dynamics, holding near 1.0740. Activity in the market remains quite low, as trading participants expect the emergence of new drivers of movement. In addition, sites in the United States were closed the day before to celebrate Juneteenth, and there were practically no statistics from the eurozone. Traders noted a further decline in production volumes in the eurozone construction sector in annual terms in April by 1.1% after –0.7% a month earlier, and on a monthly basis the figure lost 0.2% after –0.5%. Today in Germany at 08:00 (GMT 2) data on the dynamics of producer inflation were presented: the index in monthly terms showed zero dynamics, while analysts expected an increase from 0.2% to 0.3%, and in annual terms the PPI increased from –3.3% to –2.2%, but fell short of the forecast of –2.0%. In the USA, at 14:30 (GMT 2) data on jobless claims will be presented: it is expected that Initial Jobless Claims (for the week ended June 14) will decrease from 242.0 thousand to 235.0 thousand, and Continuing ones (for the week ended June 7) — from 1.82 million to 1.81 million. June Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey will also be published: forecasts suggest a slight increase in the indicator from 4.5 points to 5.0 points. On Friday, June business activity data from S&P Global will hit the market in the eurozone: analysts expect the Manufacturing PMI to rise from 47.3 points to 47.9 points, and the Services PMI to increase from 53.2 points to 53.5 point.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with near-zero dynamics, consolidating near 1.2725. Investors from the UK are in no hurry to open new positions before the Bank of England meeting, the results of which will be announced today at 13:00 (GMT 2): forecasts do not imply changes in monetary policy, but do not completely rule them out. The day before, May inflation statistics were published in the UK, which once again confirmed a fairly stable trend towards a gradual weakening of price pressure: the Consumer Price Index on an annual basis slowed down from 2.3% to 2.0%, and on a monthly basis it added another 0.3% against expectations of 0.4%. At the same time, the Retail Price Index in annual terms decreased from 3.3% to 3.0%, while analysts expected 3.1%, and in monthly terms it adjusted from 0.5% to 0.4%. The Core CPI fell from 3.9% to 3.5%, and the Core Producer Price Index, not seasonally adjusted, accelerated from 0.3% to 1.0%. On Friday at 08:00 (GMT 2), May data on the dynamics of Retail Sales in the UK will arrive on the market: the indicator is expected to grow by 1.5% in monthly terms after –2.3% in the previous month, and in annual terms a slowdown in the negative dynamics from –2.7% to –0.9% is expected. In addition, at 10:30 (GMT 2), June business activity statistics will be published: the Manufacturing PMI is likely to rise from 51.2 points to 51.3 points, and the Services PMI — from 52.9 points to 53.0 points. At 15:45 (GMT 2), investors will evaluate similar information from the United States: the Manufacturing PMI may decrease from 51.3 points to 51.0 points, and the Services PMI — from 54.8 points to 53.7 points.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, holding close to 0.6130. The instrument is trying to gain moderate support, reacting to the publication of macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand, where Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in annual terms added 0.3% in the first quarter after –0.2% in the previous period. The actual dynamics turned out to be slightly better than the expectations of analysts, who expected growth of 0.2%. In quarterly terms, the figure increased by 0.2%, contrary to neutral forecasts. At the same time, trading participants also drew attention to the publication of a study on the dynamics of consumer sentiment from Westpac: thus, the Consumer Confidence index in the second quarter of 2024 decreased significantly from 93.2 points to 82.2 points. Markets in the US were closed the day before on the occasion of Juneteenth, but today investors will evaluate data on jobless claims, as well as statistics on the housing market. It is expected that Housing Starts will increase from 1.36 million to 1.37 million, and Building Permits will increase from 1.44 million to 1.45 million.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair continues to grow actively, updating local highs from April 29. The instrument is testing 158.20 for a breakout, while trading participants expect the emergence of new movement drivers. The day before, markets in the United States were closed to celebrate Juneteenth, so the focus of investors' attention was on foreign trade data from Japan. Thus, Exports in May added 13.5% after an increase of 8.3% in the previous month, while analysts expected 13.0%, and Imports accelerated from 8.3% to 9.5% with preliminary estimates of 10.4%. Against this background, the trade deficit increased significantly from –465.6 billion yen to –1.221 trillion yen, while experts expected –1.300 trillion yen. Today, investors will evaluate publications from the United States on jobless claims, as well as on the housing market, and tomorrow data on business activity will be presented. According to forecasts, the Japanese Manufacturing PMI will correct from 50.4 points to 50.6 points, and the US Services PMI from S&P Global is likely to decline from 54.8 points to 53.7 points, while the Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline from 51.3 points to 51.0 points.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is showing moderate growth, testing 2340.00 for a breakout and updating local highs from June 7. Macroeconomic publications from the United States provide moderate support for quotes: on Tuesday, investors paid attention to a slight increase in Retail Sales in May by 0.1%, which turned out to be worse than preliminary estimates at 0.2%. In addition, the data for last month were revised: instead of zero dynamics, a decline of 0.2% was recorded. Retail Sales excluding Autos decreased by 0.1%, contrary to forecasts of 0.2%. Against this background, trading participants have slightly revised their expectations regarding a possible reduction in the cost of borrowing by the US Federal Reserve until the end of 2024: according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability of an interest rate adjustment by 25 basis points in September is approximately 67.0%, whereas at the beginning of the week it was estimated no higher than 61.0%. Today, the focus of investors' attention is on statistics on the dynamics of Jobless Claims: it is expected that for the week ended June 14, Initial Jobless Claims will decrease from 242.0 thousand to 235.0 thousand, and Continuing ones (for the week ended June 7) — from 1.82 million to 1.81 million.