EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is recovering, testing 1.0715 for a breakout. The euro is regaining the positions it lost the day before, while trading participants expect new drivers of movement to emerge. Today at 10:00 (GMT 2) statistics on business activity were presented in the eurozone: a moderate increase in the Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global decreased in June from 47.3 points to 45.6 points contrary to the forecast of 47.9 points, and the Services PMI declined from 53.2 points to 52.6 points with the preliminary estimates at 53.5 points. At 15:45 (GMT 2) similar data will be published in the United States: according to preliminary estimates, the Manufacturing PMI will adjust from 51.3 points to 51.0 points, and the Services PMI — from 54.8 points to 53.7 points. Investors will also pay attention to statistics on Existing Home Sales: after the previous figure showed a decrease of 1.9% to 4.14 million homes, markets expect sales to decline again to 4.10 million in May. The day before, data on the real estate market was presented in the United States: Building Permits issued at the end of last month fell by 3.8% after –3.0% earlier, and Housing Starts lost 5.5% after growing by 4.1% in April. A further slowdown in housing and inflation indicators, as well as a cooling in the labor market, could lead to lower borrowing costs by the US Federal Reserve. The main scenario currently calls for at least two 25 basis point interest rate cuts before the end of 2024, with the start of the monetary easing program projected for September.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is strengthening slightly, trying to retreat from the local lows of May 17: the instrument is testing 1.2665 for a breakout. Investors evaluate statistics on Retail Sales in the UK: the figure in May added 2.9% after –1.8% in the previous month, while analysts expected 1.5%, and in annual terms the index added 1.3% after –2.3% with a forecast of –0.9%. Retail Sales excluding Fuel increased by 2.9% on a monthly basis and 1.2% on an annual basis, also significantly exceeding 1.3% and –0.8%, respectively. In addition, trading participants continue to analyze the results of the Bank of England meeting held the day before, where the interest rate was kept at 5.25%, and officials’ rhetoric regarding the future remained neutral. They noted that inflation continues to slow down, but currently remains above target levels of 2.0%: in May, the Core Consumer Price Index excluding Food and Energy was recorded at 3.5%. In addition, the Bank's representatives expect that inflation may accelerate slightly in the second half of the year as the effect of lower oil and gas prices weakens. At the same time, the Bank of England expressed its readiness to change the parameters of monetary policy if necessary. Currently, analysts expect that the British regulator will move to lower borrowing costs as early as August 1.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, recovering after an attempt at a corrective decline the day before, which did not allow the instrument to consolidate at new local highs on June 12. Quotes are testing 0.6665 for a breakout, while the activity of the "bulls" is restrained by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Thus, the Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global in June dropped from 49.7 points to 47.5 points, while analysts expected 50.6 points, the Services PMI from the Commonwealth Bank decreased from 52.5 points to 51.0 points, and the Composite PMI — from 52.1 points to 50.6 points. Today at 15:45 (GMT 2) similar data from the United States will be published: forecasts suggest that the Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global will adjust from 51.3 points to 51.0 points, and the Services PMI — from 54.8 points to 53.7 points. In addition, traders are assessing the results of the meeting of the People's Bank of China, which took place the day before: as expected, the regulator kept the interest rate at 3.45%, and also expressed its readiness to continue to adhere to a supportive type policy in order to achieve a restoration of economic growth rates.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows mixed dynamics, consolidating near the level of 159.00, which is the highest since the end of April, when the Bank of Japan carried out another foreign exchange intervention in order to stabilize the national currency, which led only to a temporary effect. At the moment, the yen is again actively losing ground, and officials cannot increase the cost of borrowing, fearing a sharp increase in deflationary risks. In addition, the abandonment of the policy of negative interest rates also did not lead to the strengthening of the national currency. In turn, data from Japan, published today, turned out to be ambiguous: the National Consumer Price Index in May accelerated from 2.5% to 2.8%, the CPI excluding Food and Energy decreased from 2.4% to 2.1%, and the CPI excluding Fresh Food rose from 2.2% to 2.5%, which turned out to be slightly worse than forecasts of 2.6%. Business activity in the Manufacturing sector from S&P Global decreased from 50.4 points to 50.1 points, with a forecast of 50.6 points. With the opening of the American trading session, the market's focus will shift to June statistics on business activity in the United States: the Manufacturing PMI is expected to correct from 51.3 points to 51.0 points, and the Services PMI — from 54.8 points to 53.7 points.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, staying close to 2360.00 and local highs from June 7. Market activity remains subdued as investors await the publication of June US business activity statistics. It is predicted that the Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global will fall from 51.3 points to 51.0 points, and the Services PMI — from 54.8 points to 53.7 points. Also, during the day, data on Existing Home Sales will be presented: analysts assume that the indicator will continue to slow down and decrease from 4.14 million to 4.10 million in absolute terms, while in the previous month sales lost 1.9%. Trading participants also analyze statistics received the day before: thus, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 14 decreased from 243.0 thousand to 238.0 thousand, with a forecast of 235.0 thousand, and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended June 7 increased from 1.813 million to 1.828 million, while experts were counting on 1.810 million. Some support for quotes was provided by the results of the meeting of the Swiss National Bank, at which the interest rate was reduced by 25 basis points to 1.25%. Meanwhile, the Bank of England kept the rate at 5.25%, indirectly confirming the likelihood of its adjustment in September.