Current trend

Quotes of WTI Crude Oil have been actively rising since the beginning of the month, but this week they have stabilized at the level of 81.25 (Murrey level [4/8]) and so far cannot break significantly above it.

The market is in a state of uncertainty, as investors expect the publication of May data on the basic index of personal consumption expenditures; if the indicator continues to slow down, the probability of the start of monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve in September will increase, and the US currency will be under pressure, but otherwise the instrument may begin a downward correction.

Nevertheless, the fundamental background remains positive for the market: the intensification of hostilities between Israel and the militant Lebanese organization Hezbollah, as well as the frequent attacks by Yemeni Houthis on merchant ships this month, increase the likelihood of disruptions in the supply of Middle Eastern oil to the market. At the same time, experts expect an increase in demand for fuel and petroleum products in the United States in the summer months. Today, data on reserves from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) will be published, which can confirm their next decrease by 2.600 million barrels. If these forecasts are implemented, the quotes will receive additional support.

Support and resistance

Technically, the asset is trying to consolidate above 81.25 (Murrey level [4/8]), which, if successful, will lead to continued growth towards the targets of 84.38 (Murrey level [6/8]), 85.94 (Murrey level [7/8]) and 87.50 (Murrey level [8/8]). The key mark for the "bears" is 78.12 (Murrey level [2/8], the central line of Bollinger Bands, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement), the breakdown of which will allow the quotes to resume their decline to 75.00 (Murrey level [0/8]) and 71.88 (Murrey level [-2/8]).

Technical indicators confirm the formation of an uptrend: Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, MACD is increasing in the positive zone, while Stochastic has left the overbought zone, which does not exclude a corrective decline, but its potential is seen to be limited.

Resistance levels: 84.38, 85.94, 87.50.

Support levels: 78.12, 75.00, 71.88.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the 82.30 mark with targets of 84.38, 85.94, 87.50 and stop-loss around 81.00. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Short positions should be opened below the level of 78.12 with targets of 75.00, 71.88 and stop-loss around 79.85.