Current trend

Brent Crude Oil quotes have been actively growing since the beginning of last month. Yesterday, prices reached four-month highs around 87.25 but today, they have lost some of the gained positions.

Fundamental factors remain positive for the market. It is supported by investors’ hopes for an increase in oil demand in the United States due to the onset of the summer holiday season, as well as a significant decrease in commercial reserves. According to the forecast of the American Automobile Association, the increase in the volume of trips within the country in the summer will grow by 5.2% compared to 2023, and car travel may increase by 4.8%. The report on oil reserves from the American Petroleum Institute (API) recorded a correction of –9.163M barrels against the expected –0.150M, and today’s data from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) may reflect a change in oil reserves of –0.400M barrels and gasoline by –1.100M barrels, which will support the positive trend.

Meanwhile, according to reports, oil production in the Gulf of Mexico will continue as the wind gusts caused by Hurricane Beryl have begun to weaken. It will put local pressure on oil positions. Also, the latest comments by the head of the US Fed, Jerome Powell, can slow the strengthening of the quotes. He said that the regulator has made serious progress in the fight against inflation but confirmed the need to receive additional evidence of a positive trend before a change in the monetary course begins.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument is close to 87.50 (Murrey level [4/8]). A consolidation above will allow it to reach the area of ​​90.62 (Murrey level [5/8]) and 93.75 (Murrey level [6/8]). After a breakdown of 84.38 (Murrey level [3/8]), supported by the middle line of Bollinger bands, the price may fall to the area of ​​81.25 (Murrey level [2/8]) and 77.15 (Fibonacci correction 50.0%).

Technical indicators confirm continued growth: Bollinger bands and Stochastic are directed upward, and the MACD histogram is increasing in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 87.50, 90.62, 93.75.

Support levels: 84.38, 81.25, 77.15.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above 87.50, with the targets at 90.62, 93.75 and stop loss 85.50. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Short positions may be opened below 84.38, with the targets at 81.25, 77.15 and stop loss 83.00.