Today, we present you a mid-term investment overview of the Dow Jones Index.

Over the past month, quotes of American stock indicators have significantly strengthened their positions and are again near the peak values of mid-spring, when the situation on the bond market became the driver of upward dynamics, but now the yield of leading debt securities is more stable, and its significant correction is not expected in the next quarter. The American financial authorities note a positive trend in the fight against inflation, which will allow them to adjust the interest rate from the current 5.25–5.50%, thereby putting pressure on securities positions. So far, the popular 10-year bonds are trading at an income rate of 4.437%, which has hardly changed since the beginning of last month, and the most conservative 30-year bonds are trading at 4,600%, while maintaining attractiveness for investors. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) instrument FedWatch Tool, the probability of maintaining the key rate at 5.25–5.50% at the next meeting is estimated at 91.2%, while 59.9% of experts assume a reduction in the cost of borrowing to 5.00–5.25% at the meeting on September 18. These forecasts are combined with the words of the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, who, during his speech yesterday, made it clear that the most priority scenario involves a one-time adjustment of the parameters in the autumn and a further assessment of the effectiveness of the steps taken. If this happens, it can be assumed that the stock index will remain at current highs until the fall, and lower interest rates will push its quotes higher.

Another important factor is the start of the corporate reporting publication season, which will begin in mid-July. Analysts' forecasts for the banking sector are quite positive: JPMorgan Chase & Co. may report revenue of 41.5 billion dollars, which will exceed 41.3 billion dollars over the same period a year earlier, Bank of America Corp. holding and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast revenue of 25.34 billion dollars and 12.53 billion dollars, compared with 25.2 billion dollars and 10.9 billion dollars, respectively.

In addition to the underlying fundamental factors, the strengthening of the upward dynamics of quotations is confirmed by technical indicators: on the W1 chart, the price is forming an ascending channel 42000.0–35000.0, holding at its upper limit.

The probability of the asset quotes overcoming the resistance line of the 40500.0 channel, which is also close to the level of the initial trend of 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 40200.0 is estimated as high.

Key levels can be seen on the D1 chart.

As can be seen on the chart, the local movement occurs in an upward channel with dynamic borders of 40300.0–38000.0 with a resistance line of 61.8% Fibonacci extension.

Near the support line of the global channel at around 36000.0, there is a zone of cancellation of the buy signal; in the event of a reversal and the beginning of a price decline after reaching this level, the upward scenario will either be canceled or noticeably delayed in time, and open buy positions should be liquidated.

Around the 47300.0 mark, which coincides with the level of the basic 100.0% Fibonacci extension trend, there is a target zone; if it's reached, profit should be taken on open long positions.

In more detail, trade entry levels can be evaluated on the H4 chart.

The entry level for a buy positions is at 40200.0, and a local signal can be received in the coming days. Technically, a breakdown of the initial trend level of 61.8% Fibonacci extension will be implemented, after which there will be no significant resistance on the price's path to the target level of 47300.0, and the position can be implemented.

Given the average daily volatility of the trading instrument over the past month, which is 3370.0 points, movement to the target zone of 47300.0 may take approximately 57 trading sessions, however, with increased volatility, this time may be reduced to 39 trading days.