Current trend

During the Asian session, WTI Crude Oil quotes are holding around 82.80, supported by statistics.

The report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) reflected a decrease in oil inventories by 9.163M barrels compared to the expected 0.150M barrels and distillates by 740.0K barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 2.468M barrels. According to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), oil volumes decreased by 12.16M barrels in the week ending June 28 to 448.54M barrels, gasoline – by 2.21M barrels, and distillates – by 1.54M barrels. On July 2, it became known that the department sold 1.0M barrels of gasoline from the reserve to increase fuel supply ahead of the Independence Day celebration. Experts from the American Automobile Association believe that about 60.6M residents of the country will go on road trips during the holiday, which is 2.8M more than last year.

Analysts are adjusting their estimates of possible damage to the oil-producing industry from Hurricane Beryl, which received the highest, category 5, on the Saffir-Simpson scale and became the strongest storm ever to form in the Atlantic Ocean at this time of year. However, some financial institutions, including analysts at Swissquote Group Holding SA, noted in a note to clients that while the hurricane may not have a devastating impact on production in the Gulf of Mexico, it could cause disruptions later this week. For now, the risks of production shutdowns are assessed as low, which supports the position of energy carriers.

The market is undergoing a correction. According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week, net speculative positions in WTI Crude Oil increased from 246.8K to 271.2K. As for the dynamics, sellers have almost eliminated the gap in open transactions. Their balance among producers was 377.412K against 377.840K of “bulls”. Last week, against asset strengthening, buyers closed 7.077K contracts, and sellers formed 18.532K new transactions.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument has been rising for the second month, approaching 84.38 (Murrey level [6/8]). A consolidation above will allow it to reach 87.50 (Murrey level [8/8]) and 90.62 (Murrey level [ 2/8]). In case of a breakdown of 80.70 (Fibonacci correction 50.0%), supported by the middle line of Bollinger Bands, a decline to the area of ​​78.12 (Murrey level [2/8], Fibonacci correction 38.2%) and 75.00 (Murrey level [0/8]) is expected.

Technical indicators confirm the continuation of the upward trend. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, and the MACD histogram is increasing in the positive zone. Stochastic is reversing downwards from the overbought zone, not excluding a limited correction.

Resistance levels: 84.38, 87.50, 90.62.

Support levels: 80.70, 78.12, 75.00.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above 84.38 or when the price reverses around ​​80.70, with the targets at 87.50, 90.62 and stop losses around ​​82.70 and 79.00, respectively. Implementation period: 5–7 days.