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EUR/USD CHURNS BUT FINDS FRESH FRIDAY HIGHS AFTER US NFP SPARKS RATE CUT HOPES

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EUR/USD clipped into 1.0840 after broad-market risk appetite rally after US NFP print.
Sharp NFP revisions have reignited hopes for a September Fed rate cut.
Coming up next week: Fed Chair Powell, US CPI print, German Retail Sales.
EUR/USD whipsawed after a mixed US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print on Friday before settling on the high side, tapping in a peak bid near 1.3840 just ahead of the trading week’s close.

European Industrial Production fell steeper than expected on Friday, contracting -2.5% MoM in May and hobbling Fiber risk appetite. Pan-EU Retail Sales beat forecasts, printing at 0.3% YoY versus the expected 0.1%, but still eased from the previous 0.6%.

Read more: US Nonfarm Payrolls increase 206,000 in June vs. 190,000 forecast

Investors have ignored the better-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and are instead paying attention to increasing unemployment, slowing wage growth, and downward revisions to previous job reports. As a result, they are increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve will be pushed to cut interest rates sooner rather than later. The CME's FedWatch Tool shows that the rate markets are currently pricing in an almost 80% probability of at least a quarter-point rate cut on September 18. Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) exceeded median market forecasts by adding 206K net new jobs in June. This figure was higher than the expected 190K, but the previous month's number was revised down sharply to 218K from the initial 272K.


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