Current trend

Amid the decline of the American dollar, the AUD/USD pair is correcting upwards, trading at 0.6752, although the Australian currency remains neutral.

In May, the total volume of residential property purchased with loans fell by 1.7% to 28.8B Australian dollars after growing by 4.8% in April, remaining 18.0% higher than in May last year. The volume of issued residential property loans changed by –2.0% MoM to 18.1B Australian dollars and by 12.2% YoY, while housing available for investment fell by 1.3% to 10.7B Australian dollars, 29.5% higher than the 2023 level. The cost of personal loans with a consolidated term changed from 0.9% to –0.7%, and for the purchase of vehicles – to 0.8%. The indicators are slowing but not as fast as experts predicted since interest rates are still at peak levels.

The American dollar shows negative dynamics, trading at 104.50 in USDX. The June unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%, supported by an increase in nonfarm payrolls by 206.0K, below 218.0K in May, while the private nonfarm payrolls increased by 136.0K from 193.0K previously. Thus, the labor market remains poor, being one of the main reasons for the US Fed to keep interest rates high.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting, approaching the resistance line of the Expanding formation pattern with dynamic boundaries of 0.6770–0.6330.

Technical indicators are strengthening the buy signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, expanding the range of fluctuations, and the AO histogram is rising in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6770, 0.6850.

Support levels: 0.6730, 0.6670.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.6770, with the target at 0.6850. Stop loss — 0.6700. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price falls and consolidates below 0.6730, with the target at 0.6670. Stop loss – 0.6760.