Current trend

During today's trading, quotes for the BTC/USD pair fell below 54300.00, finding themselves in the area of six-month lows.

The position of the first cryptocurrency remains under pressure after the start of payments to creditors of the Mt. Gox exchange, which went bankrupt back in 2014: last week the site transferred the first 47.229 thousand BTC worth about 2.71 billion dollars to the addresses of its wallets for subsequent distribution. In total, it is planned to return about 140.0 thousand BTC and BCH for a total amount of more than 9.4 billion dollars. Experts previously warned that compensation from Mt. Gox, as well as the possible release of tokens from US and German government accounts recently moved to Bitstamp, Coinbase and Kraken, could lead to significant pressure on the entire range of major digital assets.

Investors are hoping that the BTC/USD pair will soon hit a low and then resume growth, which is likely to be facilitated by the expected start of monetary easing from the US Federal Reserve, as well as the launch of Ethereum-ETF. June data on the American labor market published on Friday confirmed its further slowdown (employment adjusted to 206.0 thousand, and unemployment rose to 4.1%), strengthening experts’ confidence in the September decline in borrowing costs.

Meanwhile, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to accept the final package of documents for the registration of Ethereum-ETF on Form S-1 today, and permission for it to operate may be received before the end of the summer. One can also note that the activity of institutional investors in Bitcoin ETFs has begun to increase again: over four sessions of last week, the total amount of funds allocated to the fund amounted to 238.4 million dollars.

Support and resistance

The price has returned to the long-term downward channel and is now trying to consolidate below 56250.00 (Murrey level [2/8]). If successful, the decline will be able to continue to the targets 53125.00 (Murrey level [1/8], Fibonacci extension 61.8%) and 50000.00 (Murrey level [0/8]). The key level for the "bulls" seems to be 61150.00 (Fibonacci extension 100.0%), supported by the center line of Bollinger Bands, the breakdown of which will become a catalyst for upward dynamics in the area of 65625.00 (Murrey level [5/8], the upper limit of the descending channel) and 68750.00 (Murrey level [6/8]); however, such a scenario currently seems less likely.

Technical indicators indicate a continuation of the downward trend: Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, MACD is increasing in the negative zone, and Stochastic reversal upward does not exclude corrective growth, but its potential is limited.

Resistance levels: 61150.00, 65625.00, 68750.00.

Support levels: 56250.00, 53125.00, 50000.00.

Trading tips

Short positions could be opened below 56250.00 with targets at 53125.00, 50000.00 and stop-loss at 58200.00. Implementation period: 5-7 days.

Long positions may be opened above 61150.00 with targets at 65625.00, 68750.00 and stop-loss at 58700.00.