The current dynamics

The New Zealand dollar shows mixed dynamics in the NZD/USD pair, consolidating close to the 0.6125 reference: the instrument began trading weekly with a slight decline, although on Monday, it still managed to update local highs since June 14 which was largely stipulated by the weakening of the US currency. Now there is a correction, because market participants are in no hurry to open new positions, waiting for the emergence of promoters who are able to set the dynamics on par.

Therefore, investors will monitor the speech of the president of the US SRF, Jerome Powell, in Congress, where they expect to hear hints about new measures from monetary authorities, after the publication of a weak report on the jobs market in June. We remember that in June, the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector decreased from 218.0 thousand (revised from 272.0 thousand) to 206.0 thousand, which was better than market expectations at 190.0 thousand and the average hourly wage corrected from 4.1% to 3.9% on an annual basis and from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis, which will support a subsequent weakening of inflation risks. In general, statistics on the employment market have increased expectations of easing of current monetary parameters by the end of the year and the first steps in this direction could be taken as early as September.

Tomorrow at 04:00 (GMT 2), market participants will focus on the main event of the week, namely the Central Bank of New Zealand's policy rate decision. Currently, analysts expect the value to remain at 5.50% due to increased inflation risks. Also, on the same day, a report on inflation in China will be presented, in which a slight acceleration in the consumer price index is expected from 0.3% to 0.4% on an annual basis and from 0.0% to 0. .1% in monthly calculation.

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, the bands of the "Bollinger Bands" indicator are showing flat dynamics: price range narrows slightly at the top, remaining quite wide for the current level of market activity. MACD is growing, maintaining a relatively stable buy signal and located above the signal line, while Stochastic, on the contrary, reacting to the appearance of "bearish" dynamics at the beginning of the week, trying to reverse in the descending plane and signaling in favor of developing a corrective descent.

Resistance levels are: 0.6130, 0.6153, 0.6175, 0.6200.

Support levels are: 0.6100, 0.6085, 0.6068, 0.6047.

Trading scenarios

Short positions can be opened after the level of 0.6100 is firmly broken with the target at 0.6050. Place Stop Loss order at 0.6120. The completion period is: 2−3 days.

The instrument's reversal upwards near price levels with a successive break from the level of 0.6130 upwards may become a signal to open long positions with the target at 0.6175. Place Stop Loss order at 0.6110.