Current trend

During the Asian session, the XAG/USD pair is growing moderately, reversing into an upward plane after ambiguous trading dynamics at the beginning of the current week, and is testing the level of 31.00, waiting for new drivers.

Today at 14:30 (GMT 2), the US will publish inflation statistics, which may significantly affect the monetary decisions of the American regulator. According to forecasts, the June consumer price index may change from 3.3% to 3.1% YoY and increase by a low of 0.1% MoM after zero dynamics in May. The market expects one or two interest rate cuts before the end of 2024, and the first may happen during the September meeting. Speaking before the Senate, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also noted significant changes in the labor market, which is showing signs of cooling, and called for assessing the risks of adjusting the cost of borrowing not only based on inflation but also taking into account the pace of the slowdown of the US economy as a whole. At the end of the current trading week, investors will pay attention to the production inflation data. According to preliminary estimates, the June indicator will accelerate from 2.2% to 2.3% YoY and from –0.2% to 0.1% MoM.

Meanwhile, the correction continues in the silver contracts market. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week, net speculative positions in the metal decreased from 56.0K to 55.8K. As for the dynamics, the “bulls” keep an advantage, which remains stable even against a local correction. According to the report on positions secured by real money, the balance of the “bulls” is 50.072K against 17.600K for the “bears.” Last week, buyers closed 1.355K contracts, while sellers – 0.835K transactions, which reflects a correction in the asset.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing moderately: the price range is expanding from above, freeing the “bulls” to new local highs. The MACD indicator maintains a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic, having retreated from the high values, reversed into a horizontal plane near “80”. It is necessary to wait for the indicator signals to be clarified to plan new trading operations.

Resistance levels: 31.15, 31.49, 32.00, 32.50.

Support levels: 30.75, 30.50, 30.15, 29.84.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a breakout of level 31.15 upwards, with the target at 32.00. Stop loss — 30.75. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Short positions may be opened after a rebound from level 31.15 and a breakout of level 30.75 downwards, with the target at 30.15. Stop loss — 31.15.