Current trend

The XRP/USD pair is trying to begin a correction to the medium-term downtrend: investors hope to profit from the market decline after the start of payments to clients of the Mt. Gox crypto exchange that went bankrupt in 2014. The recovery of their activity is also confirmed by an increase in investments in spot bitcoin ETFs, which amounted to 658.6 million dollars over the past three sessions.

It should be noted that the comments of American officials contribute to the resumption of the upward dynamics of leading digital assets. Thus, speaking to Congress, the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said that too late or too little monetary policy easing could unreasonably weaken economic activity and negatively affect employment. Experts regarded this statement as preparation for the early start of the adjustment of the cost of borrowing, especially since the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in the country is slowing down, and the labor market is showing signs of cooling. If the data published today at 14:30 (GMT 2) confirms a further decrease in the rate of inflation, a September reduction in the cost of borrowing in the American economy will become almost inevitable, which will further strengthen the position of assets alternative to the dollar. Meanwhile, the head of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Rostin Behnam, reiterated his opinion that BTC and ETH are commodities, not securities, and called for the transfer of supervision of cryptocurrencies to his department.

The current growth of the XRP/USD pair does not yet look sustainable, and long-term negative factors for digital assets remain: for example, payments to clients of Mt. Gox can continue for up to 90 days, depending on the rules of the site that implements them. All this time, significant amounts of BTC and BCH will be brought to the market, hindering the growth of cryptocurrencies. In addition, uncertainty continues to put pressure on XRP's position specifically due to the litigation initiated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Ripple, which has been going on for several years.

Support and resistance

The XRP/USD pair rose above 0.4395 (Murrey level [2/8]), however, for a possible change in the current trend, the price needs to consolidate above 0.4639 (Murrey level [3/8]), supported by the central line of Bollinger Bands. In this case, the movement will continue towards the targets of 0.5020 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and 0.5450 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). The key for the "bears" is the level of 0.4150 (Murrey level [1/8]), consolidation below which will become a catalyst for strengthening the downward dynamics to 0.3906 (Murrey level [0/8]), 0.3662 (Murrey level [-1/8]) and 0.3418 (Murrey level [-2/8]).

Technical indicators confirm the continuation of the downtrend: Bollinger Bands are pointing downwards, MACD is increasing in the negative zone, and Stochastic is approaching the overbought zone and may reverse down soon.

Resistance levels: 0.4639, 0.5020, 0.5450.

Support levels: 0.4150, 0.3906, 0.3662, 0.3418.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the 0.4150 mark with targets of 0.3906, 0.3662, 0.3418 and stop-loss of 0.4320. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.4639 with targets of 0.5020, 0.5450 and stop-loss of 0.4430.