Current trend

The USD/CHF pair is consolidating within the medium-term downward trend around 0.8954, awaiting the next steps of the American and Swiss monetary authorities.

The Chairman of the Swiss National Bank, Thomas Jordan, said that inflation dynamics allow the regulator to count on a steady slowdown in its rate with the support of a strong national currency, the growth of which was influenced by the results of the second round of elections in France, as investors chose to minimize risks by directing capital into the stable franc. In June, the Consumer Price Index dropped to 0.0% from 0.3% previously, and in annual terms — from 1.4% to 1.3%. The official noted the importance of monitoring statistics, while confirming that the situation in the economy so far seems "comfortable", which, according to experts, will allow the regulator to continue its "dovish" monetary policy. In June, the Swiss National Bank announced a 25-basis-point cut to 1.25%, updating its inflation forecast to 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026.

US investors today at 14:30 (GMT 2) will focus on Retail Sales data, which is one of the key indicators of consumer spending that has a significant impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP): the value is expected to correct from 0.1% in June to –0.2%, and the Core CPI — from –0.1% to 0.1%, supporting the dollar’s position. In turn, the University of Michigan last Friday recorded a decrease in Consumer Expectations from 69.6 points to 67.2 points, and the Consumer Sentiment indicator — from 68.2 points to 66.0 points, which became the catalyst for the Current Situation index to reach 64.1 points compared to 65.9 points previously and the forecast of 66.3 points. Negative dynamics indicate the expectation of a slowdown in the national economy in the near future, which, in turn, will allow the US Federal Reserve to move to reducing borrowing costs in September and will put pressure on the quotes of the national currency.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price is preparing to move away from the resistance line of the descending channel with boundaries of 0.9000–0.8730.

Technical indicators have reversed again and are strengthening the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are again moving away from the signal line, and the AO histogram is in the sell zone, forming corrective bars there.

Support levels: 0.8930, 0.8840.

Resistance levels: 0.8980, 0.9050.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the price consolidates below the local support level of 0.8930 with the target of 0.8840. Stop-loss — 0.9000. Implementation time: 7 days and more.

Long positions can be opened when the price consolidates above the level of 0.8980 with the target of 0.9050. Stop-loss — 0.8950.