Current trend

Quotes of the XAU/USD pair remain stable above 2400.0. This week, the metal is supported by a number of factors, including significantly increased trading volumes, which now amount to about 380.0 thousand contracts compared to 190.0 thousand at the beginning of the month.

First of all, the price of gold is now actively reacting to possible changes in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve at its meeting on September 18, the result of which could be a reduction in the interest rate by 25 basis points. The probability of this scenario is estimated by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool at 93.3%. One of the reasons for the change in forecasts was the rhetoric of the Chair of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who noted that the monetary authorities will not focus on achieving an inflation target of 2.0% to begin easing parameters, so as not to put even more pressure on the national economy.

In addition, technical factors, such as demand from gold-backed ETFs, also support the growth of metal prices. Over the past two weeks, inflows into such funds have been above 1.1 million ounces, most of which are in the EU and UK.

Another reason for the positive dynamics in the XAU/USD pair is currently a correction in the debt market: investors are gradually abandoning investments in bonds, preferring more growing assets such as gold and silver. Since the beginning of June, the yield on leading 10-year bonds has fallen from 4.480% to the current 4.166%, and the rate on short-term one-year bonds has dropped from 5.142% to 4.865%.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price continues to rise, holding just above the side channel with boundaries of 2450.0–2310.0.

Technical indicators are in a state of a new buy signal, which is intensifying: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator have begun to move away from the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming new ascending bars, located above the transition level.

Support levels: 2450.0, 2360.0.

Resistance levels: 2490.0, 2575.0.

Trading tips

If the asset continues to grow, as well as the price consolidates above the resistance level of 2490.0, long positions with a target of 2575.0 will be relevant. Stop-loss — 2450.0. Implementation time: 7 days and more.

If the asset continues declining and the price consolidates below 2450.0, short positions can be opened with the target at 2360.0. Stop-loss — 2520.0.