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Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar furrowed by lopsided CPI print, Fed rate cut bets max out

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  • Headline Canadian CPI inflation in June contracted -0.1% MoM versus the previous 0.6%, missing the forecast slowdown to 0.1%.
  • Annualized Canadian CPI eased to 2.7% from the previous 2.9%.
  • The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) own CPI inflation gauge likewise fell to -0.1% from 0.6% MoM, while the YoY figure accelerated to 1.9% from the previous 1.8%.
  • US Retail Sales fell flat in June, printing at the expected 0.0% MoM compared to the previous month’s 0.3% (revised from 0.1%).
  • With a steeper-than-expected decline post-revision, market bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September have been pinned to the ceiling.
  • Rate traders are pricing in 100% odds of at least a quarter-point rate trim in September, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool

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