Current trend

Amid the growth of the American dollar, the AUD/USD pair is correcting downwards at 0.6698.

June Australian labor market data reflected minimal changes in the sector, which could not support the national currency. Seasonally adjusted, the unemployment rate changed from 4.0% to 4.1%, and the share of the economically active population increased from 66.8% to 66.9%. The employment rate increased by 50.2K to 14.406M people, full employment increased by 43.3K, and part-time employment by 6.8K, ensuring an increase in the employment-to-population ratio to 64.2%. Unemployment adjusted from 598.5K to 608.2K by 1.6%, MoM, and 18.7% YoY, reflecting the ongoing problems in the sector. However, it is too strong to allow the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials to move towards monetary easing, and most of them believe that the first interest rate cut is unlikely to happen this year.

The American dollar is trading at 104.00 in USDX. Despite sufficient macroeconomic statistics, yesterday, investors focused on the speech of the US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. He said he would stop the inflation crisis and the rapid upward dynamics of oil prices by cutting interest rates and increasing oil production. The politician had already made similar statements yesterday, and at least his words coincide with the opinion of most experts, which gives investors hope for quick changes in the US economy.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting, retreating from the resistance line of the Expanding formation pattern with dynamic boundaries of 0.6800–0.6300.

Technical indicators are slowing down the buy signal. Fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, narrowing the range of fluctuations, and the AO histogram is decreasing in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6720, 0.6800.

Support levels: 0.6680, 0.6600.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 0.6680, with the target at 0.6600. Stop loss is 0.6730. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after the price grows and consolidates above 0.6720, with the target at 0.6800. Stop loss — 0.6660.