Current trend

Prices for benchmark Brent Crude Oil are correcting in a weak downward trend around 80.00.

Experts associate the current dynamics in the market with the 100% implementation of plans to reduce production by the countries participating in the OPEC agreement. Thus, according to Bloomberg data, the export of Russian "black gold" dropped to its lowest level since 2023 of 3.1 million barrels per day: maritime shipping adjusted by –150.0 thousand barrels per day, and oil shipments from the Baltic ports — by –41.0%. At the same time, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed that oil supplies to Slovakia and Hungary will continue even after Ukraine imposed sanctions on the transit of raw materials against the Lukoil company along the southern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline.

In the United States, oil reserves have been declining for the fifth week in a row: according to the American Petroleum Institute (API), the figure has adjusted by another –3.900 million barrels after –4.440 million barrels. In this regard, analysts changed their preliminary estimates regarding the report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy, expecting a slowdown in dynamics from –4.870 million barrels to –2.600 million barrels.

In turn, the demand for oil contracts is consistently high: yesterday the trading volume on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group Inc.) amounted to 973.0 thousand positions, of which 148.0 thousand were options. Despite the fact that this is below the July 17 peak of 1.56 million contracts, the figure exceeds the average daily volume in the first weeks of the month, which was recorded in the region of 820.0-830.0 thousand, and indicates a possible continuation of the current trend.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price is trading in a corrective trend, approaching the resistance line of the recent downward channel with boundaries of 78.00–72.00.

Technical indicators have reversed and issued a new sell signal: fast EMA of the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line from above, and the AO histogram, having moved into the sales zone, forms correctional bars.

Support levels: 79.70, 77.00.

Resistance levels: 81.10, 84.20.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the price consolidates below the support level of 79.70 with the target of 77.00. Stop-loss — 81.00. Implementation time: 7 days and more.

Long positions should be opened after the price consolidates above the resistance level of 81.10 with the target of 84.20. Stop-loss — 80.00.