Current trend

Last week, the BTC/USD pair showed ambiguous dynamics: at first, it adjusted to the area of 63400.00, but then resumed growth and has now regained all previously lost positions.

The downward dynamics of the cryptocurrency market, according to experts, was associated with the launch of new spot ETH ETFs on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), causing short-term sales as part of the "Sell-the-news" strategy, but currently their consequences have been eliminated. Interest in digital assets has recovered as ETH-based exchange-traded funds expand investment opportunities from major institutional players. It should also be noted that over the past week, the net inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs amounted to 535.3 million dollars.

Now the instrument is actively growing against the background of a number of statements made by Donald Trump on Saturday at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. The leader of the presidential race said that if he is elected, the government will stop selling the BTC it currently has and transfer them to a strategic reserve. However, experts have already expressed doubts about this plan: the fact is that of about 213.0 thousand BTC controlled by the authorities, 94.0 thousand were seized in connection with the hacking of the Bitfinex exchange, so it may not be easy to finally turn them in favor of the state. Trump also promised to make the country the "crypto capital of the planet", promote the development of the digital industry and replace the current chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Gary Gensler with the post office. All these statements led to a significant increase in demand for BTC and returned the price to two-month highs in the 69800.00 area. The quotes were further supported by the publication of data on the price index of personal consumption expenditures for June: it increased from 0.0% to 0.1% MoM and decreased from 2.6% to 2.5% YoY.

Thus, the price pressure in the economy continues to decline, which increases the likelihood of a September interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price has risen above the level of 68750.00 (Murrey level [6/8]), which will open the possibility for further growth to 71875.00 (Murrey level [7/8]) and 75000.00 (Murrey level [8/8], 161.8% Fibonacci extension). The key for the "bears" is the average line of Bollinger Bands in the area of 64500.00, after consolidation below which the downward dynamics may resume to the targets of 59375.00 (Murrey level [3/8]), 56250.00 (Murrey level [2/8]), but this scenario seems less likely.

Technical indicators confirm the continuation of the uptrend: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are directed up, MACD is increasing in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 71875.00, 75000.00.

Support levels: 64500.00, 59375.00, 56250.00.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the 70000.00 mark with targets of 71875.00, 75000.00 and stop-loss around 68700.00. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Short positions can be opened below the level of 64500.00 with targets of 59375.00, 56250.00 and stop-loss around 66700.00.