BRENT CRUDE OIL: US PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE DONALD TRUMP ACCUSED OPEC OF MANIPULATING OIL PRICES
| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 78.10 |
| Take Profit | 74.30 |
| Stop Loss | 80.00 |
| Key Levels | 74.30, 78.10, 79.50, 83.20 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 79.50 |
| Take Profit | 83.20 |
| Stop Loss | 78.00 |
| Key Levels | 74.30, 78.10, 79.50, 83.20 |
Current trend
Prices for the benchmark Brent Crude Oil grade are correcting in a poor downward trend, trading just below the 79.00 level.
Recently, the sector has become more susceptible to speculative fluctuations caused by geopolitical instability and the domestic political situation in the United States. Thus, yesterday, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said that the current decline in black gold prices on world markets is caused by OPEC collusion. In his opinion, they play to first reduce oil prices by supporting the Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in the elections, and then stop holding it back, which will provide cartel countries with huge profits. In addition, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak claims that the department’s decision to extend production cuts into the third quarter is intended to balance the market in the long term, and the current situation is caused by speculative actions and has no fundamental basis.
Yesterday, the US Department of Energy reported a new replenishment of the strategic reserve. 4.65M barrels with delivery by the end of this year, worth about $357.68M in total, will be purchased from October 1 to December 31, and the key suppliers will be ExxonMobil Corp. and Macquarie Commodities Trading US. At the moment, the reserves are about 371.0M barrels of oil, higher than 367.0M barrels at the beginning of the month.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving in a corrective trend, approaching the support line of the downward channel 85.00–74.00. Technical indicators have given a sell signal: fast EMA of the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming correction bars in the sell zone.
Resistance levels: 79.50, 83.20.
Support levels: 78.10, 74.30.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 78.10, with the target at 74.30. Stop loss is 80.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Long positions may be opened after the price grows and consolidates above 79.50 again, with the target at 83.20. Stop loss is 78.00.
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