Current trend

The XAU/USD pair is trading at 2388.70, preparing to continue its downward movement if current analysts' forecasts about keeping the interest rate at 5.50% by US Fed officials at the meeting on July 31 come true.

The positions of the American currency are supported by macroeconomic statistics. The Q2 gross domestic product (GDP), according to preliminary data, amounted to 2.8%, significantly higher than the forecast of 2.0%, and the core personal consumption expenditures price index was 2.90% compared to expectations of 2.70%. Initial jobless claims fell short of the preliminary estimates of 237.0K, reaching 235.0K.

At the same time, according to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions in gold increased last week and amounted to 273.1K, higher than 254.8K positions previously. As for the dynamics, buyers have been actively adjusting their positions lately, which has a negative impact on the quotes. Their balance in transactions secured by real money amounted to 222.626K against 24.182K for the “bears”. Last week, buyers closed 18.848K contracts, while sellers increased their number by 3.067K.

The long-term trend remains upward, and the decline in the second half of July is corrective. Within its framework, the price returned below the resistance level of 2405.00 and can continue to move to the key support level of 2286.00, after which long positions, with the target at 2405.00 are relevant. If it is overcome, the upward trend will likely continue to the July high of 2477.00 and then to 2550.00.

The medium-term trend remains upward. Last week, the trading instrument corrected to the area of ​​​​the key trend support of 2383.00–2373.00. The zone is currently held by buyers but sellers are not giving up on their attempts to break through it. If a buy pattern appears, long positions can be considered with the first target at 2428.00 and the second at 2483.00. If the key support of 2383.00–2373.00 is broken downwards, the trend will change to a downward trend, and short positions, with the target in zone 2 (2283.00–2273.00) are relevant.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 2405.00, 2477.00.

Support levels: 2286.00, 2221.00.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from 2405.00, with the target at 2345.00 and stop loss 2425.00. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Long positions may be opened above 2425.00, with the target at 2477.00 and stop loss 2400.00.