Today, we present you a mid-term investment overview of the Brent Crude Oil trading instrument.

Market participants are closely monitoring the political situation in the United States, especially in light of recent statements by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who accused the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) of manipulating prices for "black gold" to support Kamala Harris, who will also fight for the post of head of the White House. This is indirectly confirmed by recent statements of the current administration about the possible beginning of a new cycle of releasing "black gold" from the strategic reserves. If the authorities really start selling oil from reserves in the current situation, this will negatively affect the dynamics of energy quotes: since the end of the last sale at the end of 2022, the American government has already purchased 43.25 million barrels in reserve, not counting those that were written off by Congress. Thus, as of July 19, there were 374.4 million barrels in it, which exceeds the lows of 2022 by more than 50.0 million barrels.

The most popular spread position on the stock exchange between Brent Crude Oil and WTI Crude Oil has been held in a very narrow range of 4.50–3.50 dollars for a long time, currently amounting to 3.67 dollars. Historically, during periods of upward dynamics, the spread is close to the upper limit or even exceeds it, but now it has fallen to the lower point.

In addition to fundamental factors, technical indicators confirm a possible continuation of the decline in the near future: on the W1 chart, quotes are attempting to exit the ascending channel with the boundaries of 96.00–75.00, approaching the level of an intermediate correction of 50.0% Fibonacci at 75.20.

At the moment, the corrective decline has almost reached the level of an intermediate correction of 50.0% at 75.20, consolidation below which will be a key marker for the continuation of the decline, as it will be a continuation of the correction that was interrupted at the end of last year.

Key levels can be seen on the D1 chart.

As can be seen on the chart, the price is held within the framework of the local "expanding formation" pattern, approaching the low of the beginning of June at 77.00. The target for working out this pattern is the support line of 64.00, which is slightly above the level of a full 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 62.00.

In the area of one of the highs of the end of May at around 84.00 there is a zone of cancellation of the sell signal. In the event of a price reversal and subsequent increase, the downward scenario will either be canceled or postponed in time, and open positions for sale should be liquidated.

In the area of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which is at 62.00, there is a target zone; if it's reached, profit should be taken on open sell positions.

In more detail, trade entry levels can be evaluated on the H4 chart.

The entry level to sell transactions is located at 75.20, which coincides with the level of the intermediate correction of 50.0% Fibonacci, and a local signal can be received in the coming days. Technically, a breakdown of this level will be implemented, after which there will be no significant barriers on the price's path to the target level of 62.00, and the position can be implemented.

Given the average daily volatility of the trading instrument over the past month, which is 1120.0 points, the price movement to the target zone of 62.00 may take approximately 49 trading sessions; however, with increasing volatility in the asset, this time is likely to be reduced to 39 trading days.