Current trend

The USD/JPY pair is correcting in a stable downward trend at 149.65 due to the American dollar weakening.

Yesterday, the Finance Ministry provided data on June market operations, which reflected currency interventions of about 5.5T yen. The report for last month is due at the end of August but already now, experts of the Bloomberg agency indicate that the expenses for this month were no less. In addition, the regulator’s officials are increasing monetary pressure, raising the interest rate from 0.10% to 0.25% and adopting a program to reduce the volume of government bond purchases (JGB), the volume of which will be about 400.0B yen per quarter. By the end of the year, it is planned to reduce the volume of purchases from the current 5.7T yen to 4.9T yen, and by the second quarter of 2026 – to 3.0T yen.

The American dollar is holding at 103.70 in USDX. US Fed officials maintained the parameters of the balance sheet reduction program and left the interest rate at 5.25–5.50%. The head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, noted that there was a high probability of reducing the September indicator but the final decision had not been made. The key markers of the assessment are still the inflation and labor market targets at 2.0%.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument left the multi-month ascending channel of 163.00–156.00 and continues to decline. Technical indicators keep a stable sell signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are much lower than the signal line, and the AO histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 150.50, 153.00.

Support levels: 148.50, 146.00.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 148.50, with the target at 146.00. Stop loss is 150.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

In case of overcoming resistance and asset growth and consolidation of the price above 150.50, with the target at 153.00. Stop loss is 149.50.