衰退担忧引爆美联储降息预期,黄金多头终将再创辉煌?
消息面:
周五非农数据公布后,黄金价格一度震荡上扬,试图冲破2477美元的高位。然而,好景不长,黄金随后便出现了跳水般的下跌,这一戏剧性的转折让众多投资者感到困惑不已。为何非农数据如此糟糕,黄金却先扬后抑,甚至出现了大幅度的下挫?
深入剖析,这一现象与美股的跳水密不可分。失业率的上升,无疑触动了经济衰退的敏感神经——萨姆规则。根据这一规则,若失业率(基于三个月的移动平均线)较去年低点上升0.5个百分点,则预示着经济衰退的到来。该规则自1970年以来,其预测准确率令人咋舌,达到了惊人的100%。
周五,随着七月非农就业报告的意外爆冷,市场对于美联储降息的预期急剧升温。然而,衰退的阴影却已悄然笼罩,成为了市场的主导情绪,进而对黄金产生了不利影响,导致其出现跳水。不过,尽管如此,市场普遍认为美联储将在九月实施降息,只是降息的幅度尚存悬念,是温和的25个基点,还是更为激进的50个基点?
技术面:
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