Current dynamics

Brent Crude Oil has been declining since the beginning of last month, but this week the instrument has seen mixed trading dynamics: first the price fell to the two-month low area of 77.90, but then rebounded to 81.25 (Murray [4/8] level), and is now falling again.

The sharp increase followed reports of the death of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the political bureau of the Palestinian movement Hamas, for which the Iranian authorities had earlier blamed official Israel. Investors reacted by buying assets, fearing a new escalation in the Middle East and renewed disruptions in the supply of “black gold” from the region, but now the risk of a decline in global energy demand is again relevant. In fact, June data on business activity in the manufacturing sector recorded a significant decline in all the world’s leading economies – in the United States (from 48.5 points to 46.8 points), in China (from 51.8 points to 49.8 points) and in the eurozone (from 45.8 points to 45.6 points), confirming the insufficient pace of global industry, which could lead to a decrease in the consumption of oil and fuels.

Brent Crude Oil prices were further pressured by the outcome of the latest OPEC meeting, where exporters confirmed that some members of the agreement would gradually abandon previously adopted production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day between October 2024 and September 2025. However, this process could be suspended if no agreement is reached. However, this process could be suspended if market conditions require it.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop remains negative for the oil market and it could continue to decline in the medium term.

Support and resistance levels

From a technical point of view, the price has resumed its decline within the downtrend: if the 78.12 level (Murray [2/8] level) is broken, the move will intensify towards 76.56 (Murray [1/8] level) and 75.00 (Murray [0/8] level). The key level for the bulls is 81.25 (Murray [4/8] level), supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, the breaking of which will be a catalyst for growth with targets at 84.38 (Murray [6/8] level) and 87.50 (Murray [8/8] level).

Technical indicators confirm the likelihood of a continuation of the current dynamics: Bollinger Bands are directed down, the MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone, and the Stochastic has turned upwards, which does not rule out a corrective increase, but its potential is perceived as limited.

Resistance levels: 81.25, 84.38, 87.50.

Support Levels: 78.12, 76.56. 75.00.

Trading scenarios

Short positions should be opened below the level of 78.12 with targets at 76.56, 75.00 and stop-loss at 79.20. Execution time: 5-7 days.

Long positions can be opened above the 81.25 level with targets at 84.38, 87.50 and stop-loss around 79.70.