Daily digest market movers: US NFP misfire all but guarantees Fed rate cut in September
- US NFP jobs data showed the US added 114K net new employment positions in July, well below the forecast 175K and easing back from the previous month’s 179K, which was also revised lower from 206K.
- The US Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.3% in July, the highest rate of measured unemployment since November of 2021.
- Average Hourly Earnings also grew by less than expected in July, notching in 0.2% MoM against the forecast hold at 0.3%.
- Annualized wages rose 3.6%, below the forecast 3.7% and easing further back from the previous 3.8% (revised from 3.9%).
- US Factory Orders contracted in June, printing -3.3% MoM versus the forecast for -2.9% and accelerating down from the previous month’s print of -0.5%.
- Rate markets are now pricing in 75% odds of a double cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, with a rate cut now a forgone conclusion when the Fed delivers its rate call on September 18.
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