Current trend

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating around 2450.00, having remained virtually unchanged over the past few trading sessions. Last week the instrument managed to strengthen moderately, but the strongest growth on Friday was later almost completely leveled out. The July report on the US labor market exerted significant pressure on the position of the American currency at the end of last week.

Nonfarm Payrolls fell sharply from 179.0 thousand to 114.0 thousand, below the forecast of 175.0 thousand, the Unemployment Rate rose from 4.1% to 4.3%, while analysts expected no change, and Average Hourly Earnings slowed down from 3.8% to 3.6% with preliminary estimates of 3.7% on an annualized basis and from 0.3% to 0.2% on a monthly basis. Weak data has raised risks that the US Federal Reserve will soon move to monetary easing. In addition, some analysts have begun to express the opinion that the regulator may again be late in changing monetary parameters, as it was during the COVID-19 pandemic. At that time, the rate of inflation was underestimated, and now the risks of a possible recession in the national economy are underestimated.

Meanwhile, moderate support for gold quotes is provided by ongoing geopolitical risks: in particular, market participants are monitoring the situation in the Middle East, which escalated again last week after the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

The market continues its period of global growth. According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in gold fell to 246.6 thousand from 273.1 thousand. Buyers have continued to reduce the number of contracts recently, but the gap is still very large: their balance in positions backed by real money is 211.608 thousand versus 22.699 thousand for sellers. Last week, "bulls" closed 11.018 thousand transactions, and "bears" closed 1.483 thousand, which indicates the continuation of the corrective trend in the asset.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a slight decrease. The price range is narrowing from above, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics in the ultra-short term. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having reached its highs, reversed into a descending plane, indicating overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 2450.00, 2470.00, 2483.64, 2497.67.

Support levels: 2431.44, 2415.00, 2400.00, 2387.63.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 2450.00 with the target of 2483.64. Stop-loss — 2431.44. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

A rebound from 2450.00 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 2431.44 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 2400.00. Stop-loss — 2450.00.