Current trend

One of the leading US indices, the NQ 100, shows negative dynamics against the background of weak macroeconomic data.

The US labor market is cooling: unemployment rose from 4.1% to 4.3%, and the average hourly wage slowed more than experts expected: from 0.3% to 0.2% MoM and from 3.8% to 3.6% YoY. In turn, employment increased by only 114.0 thousand, turning out to be less than both forecasts of 176.0 thousand and the June figure of 179.0 thousand. Most of the new specialists were employed in the healthcare sector (55.0 thousand), the construction industry (25.0 thousand), and the public administration sector (14.0 thousand). Nevertheless, the increase in unemployment has shaken investors' confidence in the imminent reduction in borrowing costs. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) instrument FedWatch Tool, after the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on July 31, experts were confident that in September the interest rate would be immediately reduced by 50 basis points to 4.75–5.00%, but now market participants fear that officials will refuse adjustments against the background of labor market dynamics, which could lead to a significant slowdown in the economy in the future.

On Friday, the financial results of two of the largest oil companies in the United States were published. So, the revenue of Exxon Mobil Corp. amounted to 93.06 billion dollars, exceeding the forecast of 90.46 billion dollars, as well as 82.91 billion dollars over the same period a year earlier, and earnings per share (EPS) amounted to 2.14 dollars, exceeding the expected 2.03 dollars. In turn, Chevron Corp. recorded revenue of 51.18 billion dollars with preliminary estimates of 48.68 billion dollars, but EPS were below the forecast of 2.94 dollars, amounting to 2.55 dollars.

The growth leaders in the index are MercadoLibre Inc. ( 10.59%), DoorDash Inc. ( 8.35%), Mondelez International Inc. ( 3.47%), DexCom Inc. ( 2.82%).

Intel Corp. (–26.06%), Atlassian Corporation Plc. (–17.06%), Microchip Technology Inc. (–10.60%) stand out among the leaders of the decline.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart, the index continues to correct, moving away from the support line of the ascending channel 21000.0–19000.0.

The technical indicators have fully reversed and issued a new signal for the start of sales: the fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO histogram forms new descending bars, declining in the sales zone.

Support levels: 17530.0, 16970.0.

Resistance levels: 17920.0, 18600.0.

Trading tips

In the event of a reversal and continued corrective decline of the asset, as well as price consolidation below the support level of 17530.0, sell positions with the target of 16970.0 will be relevant. Stop-loss – 17700.0. Implementation period: 7 days and more.

In case of continued growth of the asset, as well as consolidation above the 17920.0 mark, one may open buy positions with the target of 18600.0. Stop-loss – 17700.0.