EXXONMOBIL CORP.: INCREASED GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST MAY SUPPORT THE ASSET PRICE
| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 117.20 |
| Take Profit | 120.31, 121.88 |
| Stop Loss | 115.70 |
| Key Levels | 106.25, 109.38, 112.50, 117.19, 120.31, 121.88 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 112.45 |
| Take Profit | 109.38, 106.25 |
| Stop Loss | 114.00 |
| Key Levels | 106.25, 109.38, 112.50, 117.19, 120.31, 121.88 |
Current trend
Shares of ExxonMobil Corp., an American oil company, have been falling for the fourth session, renewed a three-week low of 113.25.
The results of the US Fed meeting and macroeconomic statistics are putting pressure on the quotes. The regulator’s officials left the interest rate at 5.50% but hinted at the beginning of monetary policy easing in September. Nevertheless, after the publication of July data on the labor market, investor sentiment changed. An increase in unemployment to 4.3% and a slowdown in the nonfarm payrolls to 114.0K make experts fear that the regulator’s actions are erroneous, which could lead to excessive cooling of the economy or even a recession.
The corporation’s Q2 financial statements could not change the negative sentiment. Revenue reached 93.06B dollars, above the forecast of 90.99B dollars and 82.91B dollars last year. Net profit amounted to 9.2B dollars or 2.14 dollars per share compared to 7.9B dollars and 1.94 dollars per share, respectively, previously, and oil production increased by 15.0% to 4.4M barrels per day.
Soon, the situation may change in the event of a new escalation in the Middle East. A direct military conflict between Iran and Israel will lead to increased risks of interruptions in the oil supply from the region, supporting the shares of oil companies.
Support and resistance
The trading instrument is moving within an ascending channel: breaking through 112.50 (Murrey level [4/8]) will allow it to leave the range and fall to the area of 109.38 (Murrey level [2/8]) and 106.25 (Murrey level [0/8]). After a breakout of 117.19 (Murrey level [7/8]), the quotes may reach 120.31 (Murrey level [ 1/8]) and 121.88 (Murrey level [ 2/8]).
Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands are directed upwards, Stochastic reversed downwards, and the MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone.
Resistance levels: 117.19, 120.31, 121.88.
Support levels: 112.50, 109.38, 106.25.
Trading tips
Long positions may be opened above 117.19, with the targets at 120.31, and 121.88 and stop loss 115.70. Implementation period: 5–7 days.
Short positions may be opened below 112.50, with the targets at 109.38, 106.25 and stop loss 114.00.
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