Current trend

The NZD/USD pair is falling to 0.5925 amid positive US macroeconomic statistics.

In July, the non-manufacturing employment index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) was 51.1 points, above the forecast of 46.4 points and 46.1 points previously, and the non-manufacturing PMI increased from 48.8 points to 51.4 points, meeting expectations of 51.4 points, and the indicator in the services sector reached 55.0 points, below the estimates of 56.0 points. Positive dynamics of the indicators may attract more investors, increasing demand for US assets and, consequently, for the national currency.

Bank of New Zealand analysts said that while they see the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting its interest rate for the first time in November, an earlier correction to the figures, including at the August meeting, is not ruled out, putting pressure on the New Zealand dollar. Traders are awaiting the publication of the index of expected inflation for the third quarter on Thursday at 05:00 (GMT 2): the figure may reach 1.9%, down from 2.3% previously, putting pressure on the national currency.

Support and resistance

The long-term trend reversed downwards in late July, and the trading instrument reached an April low of 0.5860, from where it corrected to the resistance level of 0.5981, and then again moved down to the area of ​​0.5860 and 0.5789. The medium-term trend is downward: after breaking through zone 2 (0.5942–0.5928) at the end of July, the next target was zone 3 (0.5802–0.5788). Last week and this week, the price unsuccessfully tried to test the key trend resistance of 0.6003–0.5989 but continued to decline to the weekly low of 0.5852. If the 0.6003–0.5989 area is broken upward, the medium-term trend may reverse upwards, with the targets of 0.6143–0.6129.

Resistance levels: 0.5981, 0.6070, 0.6100.

Support levels: 0.5860, 0.5789.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from 0.5981, with the target at 0.5860 and stop loss 0.6011. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Long positions may be opened above 0.6011, with the target at 0.6100 and stop loss 0.5981.