EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is developing a downward trend, continuing the "bearish" impetus formed the day before. The instrument is testing 1.0910 for a breakdown, while trading participants expect new movement drivers to emerge. In addition, investors are still assessing the eurozone Retail Sales statistics released yesterday. Thus, in June, sales fell by 0.3% after growing by 0.1% in the previous month, while analysts expected –0.1%, and in annual terms the indicator fell by 0.3% with a forecast of 0.1%, while in May sales volumes increased by 0.5%. The dynamics of Factory Orders in Germany, statistics for which were also published the day before, turned out to be mixed: in annual terms, the indicator fell from –8.6% to –11.8%, but in monthly terms it increased by 3.9% after –0.6%, while experts expected 0.8%. Today, market participants are assessing the June statistics on Industrial Production in Germany: the indicator increased by 1.4% after –2.5% in the previous month, while analysts expected 1.0%. Tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT 2), the US will present data on the dynamics of jobless claims: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 2 may decrease from 249.0 thousand to 240.0 thousand.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is showing minor growth, correcting after a rather long "bearish" rally on July 17, when quotes were at record July highs of last year. Now the instrument is again testing 1.2700 for a breakout, but there are not enough fundamental factors for the positive dynamics of the British currency. The market is only correcting after a sharp drop on Monday amid a mass exit of investors from carry trades following growing concerns about a slowdown in the global economy. The US dollar reacted to the release of July labor market data on Friday, which led to a revision in forecasts for the pace of possible cuts in the US Federal Reserve's borrowing costs for the rest of the year. Currently, analysts expect the regulator to adjust the interest rate in September by –50 basis points, and the probability of such a scenario is estimated at approximately 80.0%. The Bank of England last week decided to reduce the rate by 25 basis points, noting its readiness to continue adjusting monetary policy following the weakening of inflation risks. British Retail Consortium (BRC) Like-For-Like Retail Sales rose 0.3% in July after falling 0.5% in the previous month, while the Construction PMI rose to 55.3 points from 52.5 points, compared with a forecast of 52.7 points.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing confident growth, developing the corrective impetus that has been forming since the beginning of the current trading week. The instrument is testing 0.6560 for a breakout, quickly recovering from the record low of 0.6350, updated on Monday. The emergence of upward dynamics is also facilitated by the general stabilization in the markets after local shocks caused by weak July data on the US labor market and the mass exit of investors from carry trades against the backdrop of an increase in the interest rate in Japan. Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) also held a meeting, which did not bring any changes to the regulator’s monetary policy vector. As expected, borrowing costs were kept at 4.35%, and in a follow-up statement, officials noted that inflation remains resilient and hampers further monetary easing plans. The RBA expects the CPI target of 2.0-3.0% to be reached only in late 2025. The macroeconomic statistics from Australia published today do not provide any tangible support to the national currency. The Australian Industry Group (AiG) Manufacturing PMI rose from –26.5 points to –19.5 points in June, but remains in the red, indicating further stagnation in the sector; the Construction PMI remained at –23.2 points, while the Manufacturing PMI strengthened from –25.6 points to –20.7 points.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing confident growth, quickly recovering from a sharp decline at the end of last and the beginning of this trading week, as a result of which the US dollar fell to local lows since the beginning of the year. The instrument is testing 147.60 for a breakout, while trading participants are analyzing macroeconomic statistics. Japan's Leading Economic Index fell from 111.2 points to 108.6 points in June, below market expectations of 109.3 points, while the Coincident Index fell from 117.1 points to 113.7 points. The Bank of Japan will release updated forecasts tomorrow, which could reveal the regulator's further plans for borrowing costs. Last week, the regulator rather unexpectedly raised the interest rate to 0.25%, and also noted that it was ready to further tighten monetary policy while maintaining high inflation risks. Also, the Bank's officials intend to significantly reduce the volume of government bond purchases by almost half, starting from the next calendar year. The positions of the American currency, in turn, are recovering after the publication of the July report on the labor market at the end of last week, which reflected a decrease in Nonfarm Payrolls from 179.9 thousand to 114.0 thousand with a forecast of 175.0 thousand, an increase in the Unemployment Rate from 4.1% to 4.3%, as well as a slowdown in Average Hourly Earnings from 3.8% to 3.6%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is strengthening slightly, recovering from the "bearish" dynamics at the beginning of the current week. The instrument is once again preparing to test 2400.00 for a breakout, while trading participants are expecting the emergence of new drivers of movement. A weak July US jobs report raised the odds of a September interest rate cut to 80.0%. In addition, many analysts expect the value to be adjusted immediately by –50 basis points, after which the US Federal Reserve may resort to repeated easing of monetary parameters in November. Further reductions in borrowing costs by the world's leading central banks could significantly increase the attractiveness of gold, which does not generate interest income. In the meantime, demand for the metal is actively supported against the backdrop of growing geopolitical risks: markets are still awaiting Iran’s response to the Israeli attack that killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. An escalation of conflict in the Middle East could undermine efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and lead to new flashpoints across the region. Tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT 2), the US will present data on the dynamics of jobless claims: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 2 may decrease from 249.0 thousand to 240.0 thousand.