EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing weak corrective growth, recovering from an active decline at the beginning of the week, when the single currency retreated from the local highs of the beginning of the year. The instrument is testing 1.0930 for a breakout, while trading participants expect the emergence of new movement drivers. Weekly data on Jobless Claims from the USA will be released today at 14:30 (GMT 2): according to preliminary estimates, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 2 will decrease from 249.0 thousand to 240.0 thousand. On Friday, July inflation statistics will be published in Germany, where the Consumer Price Index may be fixed at 0.3% in monthly terms and 2.3% in annual terms, while the Harmonized CPI will remain at 0.5% and 2.6%, respectively. The day before, market participants paid attention to Industrial Production volumes: in June, the indicator grew by 1.4% after –2.5% in the previous month, while analysts expected 1.0%, and in annual terms, the rate of decline was –4.1% after –6.7%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is consolidating near 1.2700 and local lows from July 2. On Monday, the pound, like many other currencies paired with the US dollar, managed to show quite noticeable gains, as the latter's positions remained under pressure amid increased expectations of imminent monetary easing. As before, analysts expect an interest rate adjustment in September, but now most of them expect a cut of 50 basis points in response to the sharp cooling of the national labor market. The Bank of England also announced a 25-basis-point cut last week, signaling the possibility of a monetary policy adjustment. The macroeconomic statistics from the UK presented the day before did not have a noticeable impact on the dynamics of the pound: the Housing Price Index from one of the country's largest mortgage lenders, Halifax Bank Plc., rose in July from 1.6% to 2.3% quarterly and from –0.2% to 0.8% monthly, while analysts expected 0.3%.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, developing a fairly strong "bullish" trend in the short term, which was interrupted by a sharp decline on Monday. The instrument is testing 0.6000 for a breakout, while trading participants are analyzing macroeconomic statistics. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) Inflation Expectations for the third quarter were revised to 2.03% from 2.33%, which could put pressure on the regulator to further reduce borrowing costs. The day before, New Zealand published a report on the labor market for the second quarter, according to which the Employment Rate increased by 0.4% after –0.2%, while analysts expected –0.2%, the Labor Cost Index in quarterly terms increased by 0.9%, accelerating by 0.1% from the previous value, and in annual terms a slowdown was recorded from 3.8% to 3.6% with a forecast of 3.5%. The Unemployment Rate rose sharply from 4.3% to 4.6%, while experts had expected 4.7%. Today at 14:30 (GMT 2), the US will present data on the dynamics of jobless claims: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 2 may decrease from 249.0 thousand to 240.0 thousand.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing a moderate decline at 146.18, retreating from the local highs of August 2, updated the day before. The American currency is trying to recover the positions lost amid a wave of sell-offs due to the increased risks of a reduction in the cost of borrowing in the United States. The dollar was also pressured by the July labor market report published at the end of last week, according to which Nonfarm Payrolls fell from 179.0 thousand to 114.0 thousand against the forecast of 175.0 thousand, Average Hourly Earnings slowed down from 0.3% to 0.2% month-on-month and from 3.8% to 3.6% year-on-year, and the Unemployment Rate accelerated from 4.1% to 4.3%. Against this backdrop, the expectations of market participants regarding a possible reduction in the cost of borrowing by the US Federal Reserve in September were confirmed, with most experts now expecting an adjustment of –50 basis points at once. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is gradually raising interest rates, citing rising inflationary pressures, but the regulator's board hastened to calm the markets the day before. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, speaking to business leaders in Hakodate, said strong market volatility last week could change the trajectory of monetary policy adjustments if it affects economic and price forecasts, as well as the likelihood of the country's inflation settling around 2.0%. The macroeconomic statistics from Japan released today were mixed: Bank Lending volumes increased by another 3.5% in July, in line with analysts' expectations, while the Eco Watchers Current Situation Index showed a modest increase from 47.0 points to 47.5 points, with preliminary estimates of 47.8 points, and the Outlook was adjusted from 47.9 points to 48.3 points.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is showing moderate growth, correcting after a fairly active decline at the beginning of the week, which, however, did not lead to significant changes in dynamics in the short term. The instrument is testing 2390.00 for a breakout, while traders are assessing macroeconomic statistics. Following the release of a weak US labor market report at the end of last week, the situation on the market is stabilizing. Ongoing geopolitical tensions are providing additional support to the asset, with investors awaiting Iran's response to the Israeli rocket attack that killed the Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, which could throw a wrench into efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, which has yet to materialize. Meanwhile, markets have raised expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs even as other global policymakers are already on a path to gradual monetary easing, with the Bank of England cutting its interest rate by 25 basis points last week. Today, investors will pay attention to the dynamics of jobless claims in the US: according to forecasts, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 2 will decrease from 249.0 thousand to 240.0 thousand.