Current trend

The USD/CHF pair is showing a corrective decline, retreating from the local highs of August 2, updated the day before. Traders are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to lock in profits before the weekend.

The data on jobless claims in the US released on Thursday failed to change the current situation on the market: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 2 decreased from 250.0 thousand to 233.0 thousand, with preliminary estimates of 240.0 thousand, and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending July 26 increased from 1.869 million to 1.875 million, ahead of forecasts of 1.870 million. The American currency remains under pressure amid the growing likelihood of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve: analysts have raised their forecasts for the September meeting and now expect the interest rate to be cut by 50 basis points at once. Moreover, the regulator may resort to another adjustment of the value before the end of 2024.

In turn, the Swiss National Bank may also reduce the cost of borrowing in September to 0.75% with a probability of 60.0%, which would be the most significant easing of monetary parameters among developed countries.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady decline. The price range narrows, reflecting the emergence of an upward correction, but remains quite spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps its upward direction but is rapidly approaching its highs, which reflects the risks of overbought American dollar in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.8673, 0.8700, 0.8730, 0.8776.

Support levels: 0.8630, 0.8600, 0.8559, 0.8500.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 0.8673 with the target of 0.8776. Stop-loss — 0.8620. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 0.8673 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 0.8630 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 0.8540. Stop-loss — 0.8673.