Current trend

During the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair is growing moderately, recovering to the high of 33.6740, renewed at the beginning of the week. Market activity remains reduced in anticipation of new drivers.

Yesterday, investors paid attention to the US statistics from the labor market. Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 2 decreased from 250.0K to 233.0K, below the market expectations of 240.0K, and continuous claims for the week ending July 26 increased from 1.869M to 1.875M, ahead of the forecast of 1.870M. At the moment, experts expect the US Fed to cut the interest rate by 50 basis points during the September meeting, and then by another 25 or 50 basis points, depending on the macroeconomic background and the reaction of traders.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s total exports in July amounted to 22.5B dollars, reaching a historical monthly high, and the total volume was 61.5B dollars, increasing by 3.4% YoY. However, analysts’ attention is focused on monetary policy. Earlier, officials of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey kept the cost of borrowing at 50.0% for the fourth month in a row, and the head of the regulator, Fatih Karahan, said there were few prerequisites for a decrease in the indicator, although inflation was showing signs of slowing. Thus, the July consumer price index fell by almost 10.0% to 61.78%. Earlier, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed hope the indicator would fall below 50.0% in September.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing steadily: the price range is expanding, letting the “bulls” renew record highs. The MACD indicator is rising, maintaining a buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic, reversed at “80” into a downward plane, practically does not react to an attempt to resume positive dynamics.

Resistance levels: 33.5450, 33.6722, 33.8000, 34.0000.

Support levels: 33.4441, 33.3500, 33.2545, 33.1345.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a breakout of level 33.5450 upwards, with the target at 33.6722. Stop loss — 33.4441. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Short positions may be opened after a rebound from level 33.5450 and a breakout of level 33.4441 downwards, with the target at 33.2545. Stop loss — 33.5450.