Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD steadies as US Dollar edges lower
- EUR/USD holds gains above 1.0900 as the US Dollar (USD) drops on firm Fed rate-cut prospects. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades near 103.00 after correcting from a four-day high of 103.50.
- The expectations for Fed rate cuts rose significantly this week after the weak United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for July published last Friday, which prompted fears that the economy is entering a recession. This bolstered risk aversion, which caused global equity markets to face an intense sell-off on Monday.
- Meanwhile, fears of a weakening US labor market have been diminished by lower-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 2. The data showed on Thursday that the number of individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time came in lower at 233K than estimates of 240K and the prior release of 250K (upwardly revised from 249K).
- Commenting on the latest jobless claims print, Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities in New York, said: “This is a very positive print for markets overall. It reinforces the fact that labor market momentum is not slowing to the same extent that was represented by the payroll report, and it also reinforces the absence of very significant layoffs in the economy.”
- According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors are divided over the size of Fed rate cuts in September. 30-day Federal Funds futures pricing data shows that traders see a 54.5% chance that interest rates will be reduced by 50 bps in September, down from 74% recorded a week ago.
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