Current trend

Last week, the BTC/USD pair had ambiguous dynamics: initially, quotes fell to the 49560.00 area, losing more than 21.0% of their value amid growing fears of the US economy moving into recession after the US Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged and unemployment rose significantly in July from 4.1% to 4.3%.

However, the negative dynamics turned out to be short-lived: crypto assets have been recovering their positions since Tuesday, as regulator officials said they do not expect negative consequences for the economy. Moreover, most experts believe that the only reaction of monetary authorities to the weakening labor market will be a more serious easing of monetary policy in September: if it was previously believed that the regulator would adjust the cost of borrowing by ˗25 basis points, now a change of ˗50 basis points looks most likely. Thus, the American currency may find itself under even greater pressure against alternative assets.

In general, investor enthusiasm is returning to the market, but a more rapid uptrend is hampered by the latest decisions of financial authorities, which have caused a negative reaction from leading representatives of the cryptocurrency community. Thus, last week it became known that the US Fed obliged Customers Bank to provide officials with a 30-day advance notice before starting cooperation with any cryptocurrency company. Gemini exchange co-founder Tyler Winklevoss said that in this way the regulator controls access to banking services, deciding who can and cannot open a bank account, limiting the opportunities of both customers and large participants in the crypto market. Cardano platform founder Charles Hoskinson once again expressed the opinion that the US authorities are "hostile to the digital industry", which led to a rollback of BTC quotes to the area of 58700.00.

Support and resistance

The downtrend in the market continues, which is confirmed by the downward reversal of Bollinger Bands and Stochastic, as well as the stabilization of MACD in the negative zone. To try to change it, quotes need to overcome the resistance zone of 61150.00–62500.00 (100.0% Fibonacci extension, Murrey level [4/8]), which will lead to continued growth to the targets of 65625.00 (Murrey level [5/8]) and 70000.00 (the area of the July highs). The key for the "bears" seems to be the 56250.00 mark (Murrey level [2/8]), the breakdown of which will allow the decline to continue to the targets of 53125.00 (Murrey level [1/8]) and 50000.00 (Murrey level [0/8]).

Resistance levels: 62500.00, 65625.00, 70000.00.

Support levels: 56250.00, 53125.00, 50000.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below 56250.00 with targets of 53125.00, 50000.00 and stop-loss of 58500.00. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Long positions can be opened above the 62500.00 mark with targets of 65625.00, 70000.00 and stop-loss of 60200.00.