Current trend

Amid negative macroeconomic data from Switzerland, the USD/CHF pair is growing within the correction to 0.8683.

Thus, unemployment in July remained at 2.3%, although analysts expected a decline to 2.2%. Retail sales fell by 0.1% MoM, below the forecast of 0.1%, and reached –2.2% YoY compared to estimates of 0.5% and –0.2% earlier, which put significant pressure on the franc. These data will probably also influence the decisions of the Swiss National Bank on monetary policy at the meeting on September 26, and the cost of borrowing may remain unchanged or even decrease.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument has been declining from May to early August. Within it, the price broke the support level of 0.8565 but could not consolidate below it. After retesting, a correction to a long-term downward trend toward the resistance level of 0.8715 began. After reaching it, short positions, with targets of 0.8556 and 0.8387, are relevant. An alternative option is a consolidation above 0.8715, after which purchases within the correction, with the target at the next resistance level of 0.8870, are relevant. The RSI (21) indicator entered the oversold area at the beginning of August but is now in the neutral zone, allowing the opening of both short and long positions.

Within the medium-term downward trend last week, the quotes reached zone 3 (0.8526–0.8504) and went into correction, reaching the key trend resistance area of ​​0.8669–0.8648. If the asset consolidates above it, the medium-term trend will reverse upwards, and long positions, with the target in zone 2 (0.8898–0.8875), are relevant. If the price returns below the resistance area of ​​0.8669–0.8648, short positions, with the targets of 0.8551 and 0.8432 are relevant.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.8715, 0.8870.

Support levels: 0.8565, 0.8387.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from 0.8715, with the target at 0.8565 and stop loss 0.8765. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Long positions may be opened above 0.8765, with the target at 0.8870 and stop loss 0.8715.