Latest trends

One of the main American indices, NQ 100, shows neutral dynamics, mainly due to negative macroeconomic reports, which may change the plans of financial authorities to significantly adjust monetary parameters.

Investors expect the US Fed to switch to a “weakening” cycle, while they have revised their estimates of the probability of a relative rate cut by 50 basis points. A few weeks ago, the Chicago Stock Exchange (CME) FeedWatch Instrument confirmed more than 70.0% probability of such a scenario. However, now the indicator has dropped to 28.5%. At the same time, the American regulator can adjust the rate by –25 basis points at each of the three scheduled meetings this year, leading to a sharp decrease in borrowing costs from the current 5.50%. Experts believe that Friday’s real estate market statistics will influence the monetary authority’s decision. Building permits fell by 4.0% to 1.396M, and the volume of new housing construction fell by 6.8% to 1.238M, which is the lowest level in the last four years.

Another reason for the unstable dynamics of the NQ 100 is the situation in the bond market. Thus, 10-year securities are trading at a yield of 3.885%, which has remained virtually unchanged since last week from 3.919%, and 30-year securities – 4.134% compared to 4.187% previously.

Growth leaders in the index were: Atlassian Corp. ( 5.03%), DexCom Inc. ( 3.16%), PDD Holdings Inc. ( 2.90%), Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. ( 2.43%).

Leading decliners were: Palo Alto Networks Inc. (–2.67%), Airbnb Inc. (–2.16%), and Lam Research Corp. (–2.13%).

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the index is moving away from the support line of the descending channel 18900.0–17600.0.

Technical indicators reversed and issued new signals to start buying: the fast EMA on the Alligator indicator moved away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram formed new upward bars, rising in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 19800.0, 20700.0.

Support levels: 19250.0, 18400.0.

Trading tips

Buy positions can be opened after the price consolidates above 19800.0, with a target of 20700.0. Stop loss at 19300.0. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Sell positions can be opened after the price consolidates below the support level of 19250.0, with a target of 18400.0. Stop loss – 19700.0.